DODGERS 2019 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS THREAD

MinorLeagueBall had Diaz 1, Kremer 8 and Bannon 15 for their O's top 20 with only Zach Pop not making it from the trade. Both Kremer and Pop were solid in their runs with the O's last year while Bannon fully face planted and Diaz was fairly mediocre.

 

• Was reading something the other day in BA and it is was about prospects presumed a year or two away that are closer to being MLB ready than people think. The closest player to being ready was Keibert Ruiz. There are apparently industry folks that feel he is close to MLB ready and BA compares the situation to Cody Bellinger the year he came up. This would be an interesting turn of events as Ruiz has displayed very little power to date, but he is viewed as an incredibly advanced player in virtually every other aspect of the game.

• The Dodgers MiLB system had 3 pitchers hit triple digits last season. They were Stetson Allie who had sporadic results, Joel Inoa who had a rough season between two lower levels and Zach Willeman. Willeman has catapulted to the top of my intrigue list with reports of him returning from TJ showing similar results as Walker Buehler. He will need to keep the velo up as he returns to a starters role, but upper 90's with 2 plus breaking pitches could mean someone very special.

 

The Dodgers have had no entries thus far on the MiLB Top 10 for RHP or LHPing(the Padres have 4 in top 10 LHP!!!), but there are plenty of intriguing arms scattered throughout the system that could be impactful in 2019 and beyond.

• Julio Urias, LHP- He is no longer considered a prospect, but his performance out of bullpen down the stretch was incredibly impressive. If anything it showed that in the event that he cannot get fully healthy to start again, the once heralded top LH pitching prospect could make an impact in a high leverage bullpen role(I'd also expect another tick or two on his fastball). It has already been announced that he will return to a starters role in 2019 and will likely begin the year in OKC or Tulsa depending on how they want to deal with his workload. He will be on an innings limit as he returns with an eye on being impactful on the MLB roster for the second half of the season. Some things to watch going into the season are the whether his velocity gets back to being more easy and his secondaries have to bounce back as they were very average in his starts in MiLB. Otherwise he will be a pen arm.

• Dennis Santana, RHP- Boy was he on a roll and for a second straight season, his secondaries had leapt forward with some scouts even calling his evolving change a plus pitch. Mixed with an already plus slider and sinker that at times flashes near double plus, it was not a surprise to see him get a shot at the bigs. The big worry here is what injury he had, there is talk that it was a rotator cuff and another saying it was something in his midsection. Depending on the severity, both could be bad, but rotator cuff stuff is generally terrifying. He was already back on the mound before the season was over, but he was doing it all in Arizona under very watchful eyes of the organization. His velocity was said to have not really deteriorated, which would be huge. He can get his heavy sinker into the upper 90's and if his change doesn't improve, he is likely destined for the pen. Most feel he is a legit back of the bullpen arm with closer stuff if he can control his slider better, but if he continues to improve on his secondaries and his command/control, he also has #2 upside, though that seems like a stretch at this point and he is more likely destined for the back of a rotation.

• Mitch(ell) White, RHP- This is one of the most intriguing prospects in the system going into 2019. White was the Spring Thing in 2017 when writers and prospect hounds including Keith Law came away raving about what they saw. When right, White has legit front of the rotation stuff that will flash a devastating ++ slider/cutter that nobody can quite figure out what it is. The problem has always been whether or not that White CAN put it all together and stay healthy. The injury bug has plagued White since college, but word is that the org fixed his mechanics last year after a worrisome drop in velocity. Everything picked back up after the change and reviews were positive. If he can continue to build on this success, he could find himself with the big club by the end of the season, but for now he still has a decent bit to prove. If durability continues to be an issues, we could see a move to the pen where his stuff would place him in the back of the bullpen.

• Tony Gonsolin, RHP- The two way athlete has really come into his own since moving to a full time pitcher. After incredible improvement in 2017 as a reliever, he was moved to a starter role that did not see a decline in overall stuff. Now based on that report from the other day, he is no longer hitting triple digits(though he's close), the velocity is still up there and the secondaries are coming along. Athletic guys like this are hard to project, but when they show continued improvement, I don't think it is wise to bet against them. Gonsolin currently projects in the middle or back of a rotation. This is a wait and see scenario more than what people are currently viewing as these types of guys especially can blast through a ceiling. If he shows more consistency in 2019 with the secondaries, you can bet you will see him for the stretch run.

• Marshall Kasowski, RHP- This is the first pitcher that is a true reliever. The 2017 draft pick had an impressive second season in the system, placing himself at the top of the orgs MiLB bullpen depth chart. The reviews on him are relatively mixed as his stuff is not exactly eye popping, but the deception in his fastball causes lots of problems for hitters. I have heard reports that his secondaries saw improvement down the stretch and could help him move into more higher leverage situations in the Bigs. For right now, he projects probably as middle reliever, but thus far has been incredibly tough to square up in MiLB on his one pitch.

• Josh Sborz, RHP- Don't expect much impact here as Sborz is merely a MR at this point. The club used him as a starter for years in an attempt to improve his secondaries, but all it seems to have really done is delayed his arrival. There was some improvement to his stuff after moving back to the pen, but he has never really taken that step forward since his run as strong reliever in college.

• Jordan Sheffield, RHP- Another of the failed starter experiments, Sheffield never could put it all together. Word is that the stuff continued to tail off in 2018 and a move back to the pen, though had positive results, didn't exactly instill a ton of confidence. His curveball in the AFL received a ton of praise, but he still is having issues properly locating his pitches. He is looked at as more of a middle reliever at this point, but has the stuff that could find him in the back of the rotation if he is finally able to put it all together.

• Stetson Allie, RHP- There was some belief that someone was going to take a chance on Allie in the Rule 5 and hide him in their pen in 2019. It did not happen and the Dodgers will get another year to try and mold the flamethrower into a viable bullpen piece. The pitcher-converted hitter-converted back to pitcher showed promise with a fastball that was said to hit 102 at times, but where it was going was anyone's guess. Though his walks were a problem, the bigger issue was how often his fastball would miss middle-middle. I have heard that the org has tried tweeking some things with him that will work for a bit, but his muscle memory takes over and then issues arise. When everything is going, I have heard he can accompany his FB with a wipeout slider, but like the FB he struggles mightily locating it. We will see what 2019 has in store, but there is solid upside to Allie.

• Dustin May, RHP- I waited until the last slot to mention Ginergaard, but that has more to do with his development than his actual stuff. Left handers and tall dudes are always the slowest to develop when it comes to pitchers. May has shown consistent improvement throughout his career and I could see the club deciding not to give him a big league debut in 2019 in an attempt to continue to have him work on other facets of his game. Of all the pitchers mentioned above, he is the most likely to stick in a rotation and currently projects as a mid rotation starter. Having a big guy that fills the zone AND has a FB that continues to tick up, makes me think they could bring him along slowly in hopes that they can get a little more out of May once he arrives. Adding velocity, more depth in his secondaries while filling out his 6'6" frame could make him an imposing presence on the mound.

 

Keibert Ruiz unexpectedly checked in at #3 on MLB Pipeline and Will Smith was SHOCKINGLY absent entirely. They went for upside at the position and felt that Ruiz doesn't have a ton of it, but his floor is incredibly high. The only thing I can think of for Smith is that they don't see him having the stamina to play catcher enough to truly qualify as he has a legit bat to be a serious threat at the position, plus the defense as well.

 

BA Podcast on our top prospects and some notes:

• The Dodgers may be the best positioned org in baseball when it comes to young impact depth already in MLB and guys on the way. In his opinion, the Dodgers are the best developmental org in the game. The Dodgers 2016 draft may go down as one of the more impressive ones in recent memory.

• They MAY be a top 10 org, he's not as certain as he was in other places.

• Keibert Ruiz is just incredibly advanced for a switch hitter. RH bat is behind LH side, but he still has major upside at both sides. Still lacks refinement on the defensive side, but took a major step forward in 2018. He thinks they keep him in AAA the whole year since Smith is closer to being ready and Ruiz could benefit with more time.

• They think Alex Verdugo may still be a little blocked if they do not move some more pieces around, but he may be the best hitter out of all out OF options. Still has motor/attitude issues, he made improvements, but still lags behind what you want from a guy with his talent.

• Gavin Lux impressed him immensely over previous reports. He's probably a Top 50 prospect to start the season and he's legit MLB'er going forward. He put on a lot of muscle between 2017 and 2018. He said that he see's him as a 15-20 HR guy with a high average, but that could change as he's apparently a really strong dude.

• Dustin May, like Lux started to bulk up A BIT and impacted his play, but his transition was in season(which means he needs to work harder in the offseason). Everyone he talked to said he was 93-96 with touches of 97 and 98, but the Dodgers folks he spoke with said that they have him getting up to... 99 . He completely reworked his secondaries and they may be a ways away, but they were advanced for how recently he started on them. He is probably truthfully 2 years away.

• Will Smith is more advanced than Ruiz behind the plate and has GG potential for the position, but his bat is potent enough that they will move him to 3B and 2B since Ruiz can only play catcher. He may have too much loft in his swing now and he may push himself into a utility role if he does not make some changes.

• Tony Gonsolin was holding 96 into the 5th. Split change was "nasty". He is a quick adapter could still grow into something special. He is one of the guys the Dodgers are getting TONS of calls on. If starter does not workout, he has the stuff and attitude to pitch the 8th or 9th. Shouldn't be up as a starter this season as he still has some growing to do, but could be in the pen by the end of the year.

• Someone to watch is Zach Willeman(someone brought up before). 94-96, touching 99 with two plus secondaries. They were short outings so he will have a lot to prove.

• Yadier Alvarez and Jeren Kendall do not look like future major leaguers.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-los-angeles-dodgers-top-mlb-prospects-podcast/

 

Ruiz is probably everything he's touted to be and more. But he isn't a needle mover for a team with championship aspirations. Wake me up in 5 years.

This isn't like Seager coming up to replace Rollins in 2015 or Bellinger replacing A-Gon in 2017.

Ruiz will be a marginal upgrade at best when he gets here...in a time when most catchers are pretty much garbage anyways.

Would be happy to see him up here, but if we don't fill out the middle of the order with guys who can consistently hit for contact, power, and get on-base...we're in for more October heartbreak. If we get there.

 

If recent reports are to be believed, he is absolutely a needle mover. He is a good defensive catcher, that is steadily improving and an incredibly advanced bat. We all complain about this team's lack of contact and along with Verdugo, this kids bat to ball skills are viewed as fairly elite. For what you are getting out of the catcher position these days, one that potentially could get you a .300/.350+ line would be incredibly impactful, especially in the playoffs where just putting the bat on the ball is important. Ruiz should not be stopping this team from landing someone good. People are fawning over Realmuto who put up good, not eye popping numbers offensively in what was a REALLY down year for catchers. That does not mean he is worth the rumored return that the Marlins are said to be seeking.

 

I'd kill for that
Wasn't the impression I was getting in previous reports

 

BA on 6 pitching prospects that greatly increased their stocks in 2018. Dustin May was one of them.

At 6-foot-6, 180 pounds, May had a long, gangly frame oozing with physical projection when the Dodgers drafted him out of high school as a third-round pick in 2016. For such a tall, physically underdeveloped pitcher, May has shown exceptional body control, which helped him repeat his delivery and fill the strike zone consistently.

The Dodgers made a bet that May's fastball would climb from the 88-93 mph range he showed in high school. That projection started to deliver last season. May mostly parked at 93-96 mph with heavy sink and downhill angle that helps the pitch play up even further. Already in Double-A during his age-20 season last year, May now has a higher probability of developing into a mid-rotation starter.

 

Jeter Downs was rated #6 best 2B prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. Pretty impressive as he is also the youngest player in the top 10. I would not be shocked to see him have a monster year. What we know about the ability for our org to develop players, has me thinking that his bat is going to take another step forward.
Another interesting note is that Gavin Lux is not in the top 10, so they must have him fully as a SS.

 

• Gavin Lux was rated #9 Top SS prospect by MLB Pipeline. He was also listed as the highest riser with a knock on his arm and major high marks for his bat. If he replicates his 2018 numbers in 2019, I would bet he is in the top 20 prospects this time next year.

• Former Dodgers prospect Oneil Cruz was listed as "Keep an Eye On".

• Baseball Prospectus has former Dodgers prospects Yusniel Diaz #44, Yordan Alvarez # 49 and Oneil Cruz #91 in their top 101. Lucius Fox came in at #79, he was said to be a Dodgers Int'l signee before he flipped to the Giants on signing day.

• Baseball America has the same former Dodgers prospects in their Top 100 with Alvarez #34, Diaz #37 and Cruz #79. Cruz and Alvarez making themselves known would be a real kick in the nuts since they were traded for relievers(Watson and Fields). I will say that compared to the Dodgers prospects that ARE in the Top 100's released today, the guys they traded are probably the players with the lowest floors.

 

Q: Hypothetical: Gavin Lux puts up similar numbers as last season in AA this year, maybe even a slight improvement. Where do you think he'd rank in 2020 Top 100?

Baseball America: If Lux hits .315+ with double-digits HRs and SBs at AA/AAA while showing the same athleticism in the middle of the diamond as he did last year, that's a Top 20 prospect at least.


So if everything goes well in 2019, the Dodgers very well could have 2 top 20 prospects. Baseball Prospectus is obviously not nearly as high on Lux.

 

Q: With some questions about a permanent 2B on the major league roster, what are the chances LA would give Lux some swings in the majors during 2019 at some point? Or is his soonest projection definitely 2020

MLB Pipeline: Gavin Lux led all Minor League shortstops in all three slash categories last year with a .324/.399/.514 line, reaching Double-A at age 20 and thriving there in August and during the Texas League playoffs. A 2020 ETA in Los Angeles is more realistic, but the Dodgers are all in to win now, and it's possible that he could be their best second-base option by the end of this season. Lux has had issues with throwing accuracy at shortstop, and several scouts project him to wind up at second base, where he has played 60 games in the last two years. He's much steadier at second and makes repeated hard contact at the plate, so he has the potential to contribute as Los Angeles tries to go one step further and win the World Series.

 

If I was named "Lucius Fox," I'd probably flip to the Giants too.

 

Dodgers Prospect Tony Gonsolin Had a Breakout Season
by David Laurila
January 25, 2019
Tony Gonsolin made a name for himself last year. After meriting a mere mention in last spring’s Los Angeles Dodgers top prospect rundown, the 24-year-old right-hander went on to be named the NL West team’s 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. A role change jumpstarted his breakout.

Primarily a reliever in his four years at St. Mary’s College of California, Gonsolin continued in that role after the Dodgers selected him in the ninth round of the 2016 draft. That changed once the forward-thinking organization got an extended look at what he brings to the table. Intrigued by his velocity, multi-pitch mix, and 6-foot-2, 205-pound frame, they decided to try him as a starter.


The results were a resounding success. Pitching between High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Tulsa, the St. Mary’s graduate — he earned a business degree before turning pro — Gonsolin logged a 2.60 ERA and allowed just 104 hits, while fanning 155 batters, in 128 innings.

Gonsolin discussed his development, including his transition from reliever to starter, earlier this month. Also weighing in on the promising young pitcher was Brandon Gomes, the Dodgers director of player development.

———

Gonsolin on pitching analytics and his fastball: “I feel like every team is moving in that direction — they’re getting into more of the analytical side of baseball. Here, we have things like video with instant feedback where you can throw a pitch in your side work and by the time you get the ball back from the catcher you know how much it spun, and the axis in which it spun. That makes it easier to make pitch-to-pitch adjustments within the training element. Once you’re in-game it becomes, ‘What you have that day is what you have that day.’ You work with that.


“I came into professional baseball thinking I threw a sinker. I wanted to get ground balls and whatnot, when little did I know, my ball tends to not sink. It doesn’t have the characteristics of a traditional sinker, so I kind of had to change my mentality.

“I changed from a two-seam grip to a four-seam grip in instructs in 2016. I threw a two-inning simulated game where it was, ‘OK, the first thing you’re going to do is throw all four-seams and then, secondly, you’re going to throw all two-seams.’ I did, and then it was, ‘Your ball doesn’t sink.’ The [readings] showed that. They said I should probably switch to a four-seamer, and I was like, ‘Well, I can’t argue with that.’

“I didn’t have to relearn how to pitch, but I did need to change my visuals in order to get the ball where I wanted it to go. That’s still a work-in-progress, in a way. I’m still trying to consistently locate the ball effectively up in the zone. Hopefully one day it will click to where when I want to throw a fastball up, it will be, ‘OK, cool; fastball up.’ I’ll know that I won’t miss down. It’s also about picking the right situations, the right spots, to execute that pitch.”

On being clocked as high as 100 mph: “I think that comes from a few different things. I hit 100 on the gun in 2017, as a reliever. Out of college I was topping out at 95. I was also a two-way player in college. That made for more stress on my body than I realized at the time, so becoming a pitcher only was a big factor. I also did a weighted-ball program with the Dodgers, before spring training, which probably helped as well.”

On his split/change: “I started working on it in spring training of 2017. I was basically trying to figure out a changeup grip that works for me. Tim Hudson was a pitcher I liked growing up, and wondering how he threw his was kind of how it started. [Joel] Peralta was with us in spring training with us that year — he’s known for his splitter — and he talked to everybody about how he throws his. I took things I liked from that and kind of made my own.

“Is it my second-best pitch? Probably. I try not to rank my pitches, because I like to feel confident throwing any of my pitches at any time — I have the curveball and slider, as well — but people do tell me that it is.”

On becoming a starter: “Whenever we were short and needed someone to make a spot start, I would let the manager know that I could do it. So I never really ‘asked’ to be a starter, but at the same time I wasn’t opposed to it in any shape or form.

“In spring training of this past year they asked, ‘Hey, how do feel about using all of your pitches and being a starter? Instead of throwing one or two innings, you’ll throw five or six.’ I was like, ‘Let’s do it.’”

On being teammates with Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes at St. Mary’s: “I don’t know if I really learned so much about pitching from him. It’s more that I quietly watched how he went about his business and handled himself. It’s nice to see one of my good friends not only make it, but also have an impact and pitch in the playoffs. It’s awesome. Hopefully someday I can do the same.”

——

Brandon Gomes on Gonsolin: “Tony was outstanding all year. He has four above-average pitches, and was up to 100 (mph) in 2017, so we wanted to see if he would want to start. Tony was excited about the idea and we stretched him out during spring training.

“His fastball has strong ride. He maintained mid-90s velocity as a starter, which can be attributed to his attention to detail and excellent work ethic, and his ability to land multiple off-speed pitches in the zone is unique. His split/change is a wipeout pitch. He also features an upper-80s/low-90s slider, as well as a plus curveball.

“Tony mixes fastball/offspeed at a 50/50 clip, making him unpredictable. We liken his profile to a Ross Stripling-type pitcher where he can be utilized in many different valuable roles.”

 

BP on our system
Verdugo- They feel that he still has the potential to develop into someone truly special. His bat is ++ in their eyes and they see the power finally starting to develop. His floor is incredibly high with his likely outcome being a first division reg. If the power can develop even more into something 20+HR's, he could be one of the better COF's in the game.

May- Seems like they join the everyone else party in seeing May as a #3 starter. They say he still has a high ceiling of a #2 since he has so much control of his pitches. Change up is lagging, but getting a feel for that is the difference right now.

Ruiz- They don't love his defense just yet as he is fairly average in a lot of departments, but his quickness makes up for those weaknesses. It sounds like he can press with the bat if he's slumping and it leads to some questions of what could happen to his approach as he moves up. Since he has elite bat to ball skills, when he presses it results in a lot of weak contact on pitches outside the zone. Since he is still so young for the position, they still think he has room to develop into one of the game's best catchers.

Smith- They are fairly high on Smith, but they have some reservations. Fits the mold of a great defensive catcher that currently projects to have a good HR total, but meh avg and solid OBP(think Joc'ish without the slugging percentage and a much higher K rate). In today's game, he is a solid-average starting catcher that gets a bump from great D and being someone that you cannot make a mistake to. They leave the window open since he has shown the ability to adjust in the past for him to still have a chance to be something more. If he can maintain his power and start making more contact against advanced breaking pitches, then he could become a more intriguing prospect.

Lux- All good things. He is probably not a superstar, but is looking like a solid regular up the middle.

Peters- His bubble is about to pop. He needs to start making more contact against even just mediocre breaking pitches. Looking like a platoon player that would be useful against lower tier pitchers. He is still rated highly since he has ++ power.

Gonsolin, Santana & Santan- All have similar projections. BP feel that they are headed for the pen as control/command issues seem to haunt TG and DS in BP's point of view and it sounds like they never got a look at Smith after his return as their notes on him are nowhere close to the others I've seen. One other note, the reviewer has been notably low on both TG and DS even leading into this year. They have loved White, but this year he fell off.

Gray- Has a similar projection as the names above, but there is still room to develop as he has been trending in the right direction. He actually has a higher floor than the 3 names above, but he is further away than any of them.

Kendall- Youch, this is a rough one. He is still high due to pure athleticism, but the same things that plagued him in college are following him in the minors. One of the things said about him... he has shown "no ability to buy in to, or really even attempt, necessary adjustments at any point..." This was something I read about him when he was drafted from a couple of other places. Curious if this is an attitude thing or just plain comprehension.

Downs- Is tough to project, he has over performed expectations already. They are modest and think he could be a second tier regular at 2B, but they aren't limiting his opside just yet.

Rios- They think he's a legit bat, but they still have him as a liability even at 1B. He has some quirks that usually cause problems at the upper levels, but he has shown no ill effects. Light tower power with the ability to go with a pitch and drive the ball all over the field. If he continues to make progress with the glove this year, I really wonder what the club could have for him in mind.

 

Yeah, the only consistent knock on him has been stuff about his attitude and I have seen different takes on it across the spectrum. He doesn't appear to be fiery or balls to the wall and that irks people, but those that know him say it is just a demeanor and has nothing to do with effort. His bat to ball skills are sorely needed and if he can really develop just a bit of power, he will be incredibly valuable.

It was not a knock that Ruiz is not a decent catcher defensively as he does a good job of overcoming average tools, it is just to not expect him to ever turn into Pudge 2.0. He is still young, so he could improve, but certain things do hurt him(i.e. his arm is consistently rated as average). Smith's projection is pretty on par with everything I have seen. Some folks rate power higher than others and especially at C, it is a big plus. The shock to me was that they said he really struggled with secondary pitches, which is not really in line with prior reports. One thing to remember is he drastically changed his approach this year, so we could still see some adjustments as he gets comfortable.

I have never seen whether it is an unwillingness or an inability and this is 3rd(4th?) year of that question. He was a potential 1-1 guy in the draft, but swing and miss struggles and him not adapting is what dropped him to us. They even say in the piece, if this dude magically figures out that swing, he could be something incredibly special, but so far he has shown nothing positive. In their POV, we had the best and worst seasons in MiLB for improvement from a player. Lux was the best and Kendall was the worst.