CLOSED NEWS/RUMORS Thread

@brownsonjacob2
Is Kyle Tucker pressing? Almost certainly. The underlying numbers back this up, but the bigger picture isn't as concerning as it may look.

@JeffSpiegel highlights the following below:

• Whiff rate: 20.2%->27.1%
• Chase: 17.6%->24.2%
• First pitch swing: 36.3%->58.2%
• Swing: 45.2%->53.6%

That jump in first-pitch swing rate stands out the most. It’s the second-largest increase in MLB from 2025 to 2026, trailing only Juan Soto. That alone tells you this is likely a shift in approach.

Being aggresive isn't inherently bad, but it's causing Tucker to get behind in counts at an alarming rate. His First Strike % in 2026 is 74.6% (+18.3), meaning Tucker is down 0-1 in a concerning amount of at bats.

Why does this matter? Count leverage is EVERYTHING. This was how Tucker faired after 0-1 counts compared to 1-0 in 2025:

0-1:
.232 AVG
22.6% K%
.730 OPS
107 wRC+

1-0:
.279 AVG
11.1% K%
.920 OPS
158 wRC+

Even though Tucker is being more aggressive early in counts, it isn’t putting him in better situations. Instead of getting ahead, he’s often falling behind 0-1, where pitchers gain control of the AB and can expand the zone. That shift in count leverage is a big reason why his production has taken a hit.

Here’s the part that's important for avoiding overreaction:

The spike in early swings isn’t caused by reckless chasing. A big part of it is that pitchers are simply attacking him more aggressively with first pitch strikes. The image below shows every first pitch strike against Tucker this season. Pitchers are controlling the ABs by throwing strikes early.

That dynamic is unlikely to hold forever. Pitchers rarely maintain that level of first-pitch strike frequency against elite hitters over a full season. As that normalizes, Tucker should naturally find himself in more hitter-friendly counts again without needing a dramatic adjustment.

Tucker does look like he’s pressing a little bit. His approach has clearly shifted toward early aggression, and it’s putting him in more disadvantageous counts.

But this isn’t a broken hitter. It’s a combination of slight over-aggression and pitchers exploiting it temporarily.

As the league adjusts back (and Tucker inevitably does too), the underlying talent should reassert itself, and the results should follow.

 

@SleeperDodgers
Kyle Tucker last 7 games:

• .200 AVG
• .523 OPS
• 0 HR
• 4 RBI

It’s been a slow start for Kyle Tucker, no doubt— but I still believe he’ll turn the page and put together an All-Star caliber season; it’ll just take some time.

 

anthony rendon 2.0

 

I'd like to believe that he's too good a hitter to continue at this paltry production rate. I'm holding on to that for now.

That doesn't mean I don't have concerns. After a great start to 2025, he really faded in the second half. From OPS of .935, .882, and .982 in April, May, and June, respectively, he finished with .675, .735, .516 in the final three months. So his .705 OPS so far this year seems to be a continuation of a decline that started last July. In theory, his numbers should be even better now with Ohtani hitting in front of him and any of Betts, Freeman, and Smith behind him. He should be getting good pitches to hit. Hopefully the Dodgers didn't buy a broken product.

For one thing, he swings at more first pitches than anyone in the NL other than Ezequiel Tovar. If that was working for him, it'd be understandable. But it's not really the Dodgers M.O. as they're usually pretty good at working pitch counts. Maybe pitchers have come to know this about him and look to give him something they know he'll swing at early, but not very hittable. I don't have stats on that, just speculating. I wish he'd be more selective though, and maybe later in the count he'd get better pitches.

When we signed him I assumed he'd opt out after two. Now I'm starting to hope we're not stuck with him for four.

It IS still early though.

 

Interested in seeing where DSP sits on this?

Things to factor is that he's currently on the IL and he's going to be looking for a max contract in the off-season.

 

I'm 60/40 on this one, with 60 to the side I voted. Here are my pros and cons:

Pros for making a trade:

1. Wrobo and Sheehan have been good for us, but Skubal is a top-3 MLB pitcher.

2. If the primary goal is three-peat, then Dodgers need to be all-in on that right now and not worry about the future.

3. We're blessed to have all the prospect talent, but Dodgers can't use them all and this would assure getting a known talent in return. Trading them down the road may be a crapshoot if we get prospects back or lose leverage due to impending Rule 5 status.

4. Detroit will trade Skubal, and only a contender will pay what Tigers are asking given the rental status. If Dodgers don't trade for him we may be facing him in October.

Cons:

1. He's a rental, and I don't believe trading for him would give the Dodgers any advantage in re-signing him. He's going to want a max contract, and Boras will only push that further.

2. Wrobo showed his potential last night, and Sheehan has in the past. These guys are young and only getting better.

3. If we trade our top prospects I'd like to get a more permanent asset in return.

4. There's no guarantee this microscoping procedure will make him as effective as he was.

5. At least at the moment, there's no big hole in the rotation that needs to be filled.

 

leaning towards pass

would love skubal but there’s really no telling what he’ll be like post-injury
even if he pitches well down the stretch there’s no guarantee how he’ll hold up

he’s also going to cost way too much for a rental
why give away the farm (literally) now when you could just throw money at him in the offseason?
and yeah the rules could change, but again no guarantee whoever trades for him will be able to retain him

i’d hate to see him go to san diego but i don’t think he alone makes them that much better
i would however hate to see him go to toronto or (worse) atlanta because IMO he could make them legitimate favorites