One two punch

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by grizz, Feb 17, 2013.

  1. grizz

    grizz DSP Regular

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    Top five pitching duos
    The Dodgers now boast the best pitching pair in the majors for 2013
    By Paul Swydan | FanGraphs
    February 17, 2013

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    Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw form a formidable pitching duo.

    When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Zack Greinke this offseason, he gave them -- along with lefty Clayton Kershaw -- one of the top front ends of a rotation in baseball. Together, the duo is arguably the best one-two punch in the game, a pair truly capable of winning four games in a seven-game series.

    Are they the best in the game? I decided to pore through some advanced metrics (and sprinkle in a little subjectivity) to determine the top five duos in the game right now.

    To determine these rankings, I selected the top two of each rotation based on the player's projected WAR totals, courtesy of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system, which has just finished running over at FanGraphs.

    I also took the combined WAR (FanGraphs' version) of each duo for the past three seasons. I use three seasons, because any one season can be subject to statistical flukes, so when possible -- as it is here -- three years makes for a better sample.

    However, WAR isn't the end-all be-all, so we want a couple of other metrics as well. A pitcher's peripheral statistics, such as strikeouts and walks, often hold a great deal of predictive value, but rather than dividing them by each other, as K/BB does, it's better to subtract the two percentages from each other. This not only gives it more predictive value (which you can read more about), but it also makes more sense intuitively, as you are using the same sample in your denominator -- total batters faced. (For a full statistical breakdown, check scroll to the bottom.)

    Finally, we want to have a projected rate stat to account for the fact that not all pitchers are projected to have the same workload. For instance, ZiPS projects Gio Gonzalez to toss 200 innings this year, but projects Kershaw to toss 221 2/3, a large difference. Therefore, we'll use the ZiPS projected ERA for each duo. By using all four of these metrics, we can get a more complete picture of how the duos have performed, and how they may be expected to perform.

    Here are the top five pitching duos in baseball right now:

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    1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke

    Indeed, the Dodgers' new duo is the No. 1 team on the list. No pair of pitchers that a team can put together can match the 10.4 WAR that ZiPS projects Kershaw and Greinke to achieve this season. The Nats might come close if Strasburg were pegged for more innings pitched, but it remains to be seen if the nanny state Washington placed him in will lead to the 200-inning season they expect from him.

    Like the Phillies, Los Angeles has a pair of very efficient pitchers. It's become de rigeur to doubt Greinke, but he has been worth at least 4.0 WAR (per FanGraphs) in each of the past five seasons, giving him an exemplary track record. It's that track record that makes him more bankable than Scherzer or Strasburg, who have just a single season of domination under their belts. And while Kershaw didn't match his brilliant 2011 season in the same fashion that Verlander did, he joins Verlander as one of two pitchers to notch a WAR projection north of six wins.

    The Dodgers have the best balance of past track record and future projection, and that puts them in position to tip the scales in their favor. L.A. may not have the best overall rotation, but with Kershaw and Greinke, they are going to be tough to beat.

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  2. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    Thanks Grizz!

    Wooooo!!! Ballin'!
     
  3. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    Dodgers' rotation boasts power at the top
    By Jerry Crasnick | ESPN.com
    February, 17, 2013 | 12:35 PM ET

    GLENDALE, Ariz. -- If there were any doubts that Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke views the world from a different perspective, he allayed them this week with an update on his dream commuting scenario. In a perfect world, Greinke would live on the beach and travel to and from work in a helicopter, Kobe Bryant-style. Until reality intervened, he was hoping to put a whole new slant on the term “infield chopper."

    “I don’t think you’re allowed to land in the stadium,’’ Greinke said. “I looked into it. And then you have to go to an airport to get picked up, so it’s not as easy as it sounds. If you have to drive 10 minutes to the airport, fly and then drive 10 minutes from where you’re dropped off, it takes you 45 minutes. You might as well just drive.’’

    Greinke’s teammates through the years have learned that he can be aloof or downright standoffish at times, and his veneer is hard to crack. But this year the Cactus League clubhouse seating chart is rich with bonding opportunities. When Greinke looks to his left, he sees 2011 National League Cy Young award winner and two-time All-Star Clayton Kershaw in a neighboring stall. You get the feeling they’ll find lots of common ground.

    Kershaw, 24, is sensational and ascending. Last year he became the first pitcher to lead the major leagues in ERA in back-to-back seasons since Pedro Martinez achieved the feat for the 2002-2003 Boston Red Sox. He also joined Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Hideo Nomo and Fernando Valenzuela as the fifth Dodgers pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts in three straight seasons.

    [​IMG]
    Greinke signed a six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers in the offseason.

    Greinke, 29, ranks fifth in baseball in strikeouts since the start of 2008 behind Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. And even his so-so days can be special: In his next-to-last start of 2012, Greinke whiffed 13 Seattle Mariners in five innings. He became the first pitcher since 1920 to register that many strikeouts in five innings.

    It’s tempting to say that Greinke makes a great wing man for Kershaw -- except that $147 million over six years is awfully pricey for a wing man.

    “I’m thinking, ‘Why me?’ This is awesome,’’ said Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis. “I get to catch two of the elite pitchers in all of baseball. Two former Cy Young winners. Guys who are probably going to win more Cy Youngs in their future. I’m more than excited.’’

    As Greinke settles into his new environs, he’s trying to place a difficult aspect of his past into its proper perspective. After walking away from the game with Kansas City in 2006 because of social anxiety disorder, Greinke turned a corner when he began taking the prescription antidepressant Zoloft. There were 37 million Zoloft prescriptions filled in the U.S. in 2011, so he’s not exactly a trailblazer. In the baseball world alone, Joey Votto, Dontrelle Willis, Khalil Greene and Justin Duchscherer are among the players who have been forthright about struggles with anxiety or depression in recent years.

    But Greinke’s quirky demeanor and “makeup" were destined to become a more prominent topic of conversation after he signed a nine-figure deal with Magic Johnson’s budding star factory at Chavez Ravine. Greinke didn’t encounter a lot of media scrutiny in Kansas City or Milwaukee. In Los Angeles, he’ll have to adapt to heightened expectations pitching for a big-market team under lots of pressure to win.

    Greinke got a taste of those expectations after the Angels acquired him in a stretch-drive trade with Milwaukee last July, and he acquitted himself nicely with a 6-2 record and a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts. During the free-agent process, the Dodgers were blown away by Greinke’s baseball knowledge and candor in a personal interview with him. Manager Don Mattingly hailed Greinke as a “baseball junkie" and said the social anxiety disorder is a “non-issue."

    Last week, Greinke spent 25 minutes at his locker breaking down his off-field issues from A (anxiety) to Z (Zoloft). Group media interviews with Greinke can be awkward events, in part because he’s so introspective and refuses to give rote, convenient answers to questions. Try to engage him on the weather, and you’re asking for a blank stare.

    “I like learning stuff, I guess," Greinke said. “I don’t want to just talk about nothing -- or less than nothing. If it’s something important, I’m fine with it. If it’s, ‘Hey Zack, how was your day?’ well, my day was good. That’s gonna be my answer. I don’t know how it gets any deeper than that. Do people ask that question and you actually tell them how your day was? I don’t have any interest in that."

    The decision to sign with the Dodgers -- besides making him one very wealthy dude -- will showcase Greinke’s all-around skills and help liberate him to be everything he can be. Greinke is a .170 hitter in 106 big league at-bats, but he should be more of a threat once he gets regular work at the plate. He’s a terrific athlete with the aptitude to run the bases or spring from the mound to turn sure infield hits into outs.

    Greinke has been fortunate to pitch on some talented staffs with the Brewers and Angels in recent years, but it wasn’t always that way. When he broke in with a 58-104 Kansas City team in 2004, he pitched in a rotation with Darrell May, Brian Anderson, Jimmy Gobble and Blake Wood. The following year, Jose Lima, Runelvys Hernandez and D.J. Carrasco came onto the scene. You get the picture.

    It wasn’t until the Royals signed Gil Meche to a $55 million deal in 2006 that Greinke felt relieved of his burden to carry the staff.

    “It was hard in Kansas City because all you see is bad," Greinke said. “After a while you start to think, ‘Is it even possible?’ For a young guy, it’s so much harder to come up and not have success around you. If you were a young hitter coming up in Texas’ lineup the last couple of years, if you can’t succeed with that around you, you’re just not that good. It’s a million times easier coming up with success around you."

    [​IMG]
    Entering his sixth season with the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw has a career 2.79 ERA.

    While Greinke freely admits that “I can’t focus on two things at once," Kershaw seemingly does everything with ease. After winning the Roberto Clemente community service award at the World Series, Kershaw traveled to Zambia in January to open an orphanage with his wife, Ellen. He’s embraced a leadership role and the burden of expectations while developing into a more polished pitcher every year.

    “When I first worked with him in the minor leagues and the big leagues, he would just rear back and throw the four-seam fastball and curve as hard as he could," Ellis said. "He’s truly a pitcher now. He’s 24 in age, but his mind is like 46."

    Greinke watched Kershaw throw a bullpen session last week and was bowled over by his new teammate’s stuff. Meanwhile, Kershaw took note that Greinke was paying attention.

    “He just studies," Kershaw said. “He watches, and I think that’s how he learns. Whether it’s pitchers on our staff or games or video or whatever it might be, he looks like he just takes it right in. I think it’s a testament to how smart he is and how much he likes the game.

    “Everybody’s personality is different. I think that’s what makes a clubhouse good. If you have 25 of the same guys, it can be pretty boring. Once we get to know him a little bit, maybe we’ll have a little bit of small talk. As long as we keep it to baseball, I think we’ll be on the same page."

    The Dodgers' rotation has a chance to be considerably more than a Greinke-Kershaw production if Josh Beckett clicks it into gear, free agent Hyun-Jin Ryu is the real deal and Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are over their injuries. That doesn’t even include Aaron Harang or Chris Capuano, good big league starters who might be squeezed by the surplus.

    But it all begins with the two pitchers at the top. If the Dodgers’ daily commute takes them to the playoffs and beyond this season, nobody will care which route they take to the park.

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  4. N.Z

    N.Z DSP Legend

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    Would prefer the best 1-2-3-4 punch.

    Look it's great and all. But a pitcher is always a throw, one comebacker up the middle, one fastball on the wrist while bunting away from been out for the season or for life. I love that on paper we have the best 1-2 punch in baseball. But with all due respect, these two ain't done fucking squat yet. I want to read these kinds of articles at the end of the season when it's all said and done. Feels like articles like this are tempting fate. Might just be that I'm not used to such pre-season accolades.
     
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  5. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    Got that too.
     
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  6. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    The Tigers and Nationals are gonna get their knobs drooled on before we get any props.
     
  7. CapnTreee

    CapnTreee Guest

    Might have to wait a few months before that conversation... in the meantime we're smack in the middle of a complete media love frenzy over the new GG owners with full blown fat wallets dripping starting pitchers and fast bats all over the place...

    Dodger fans ain't seen the likes of a preseason like this for a good many years...

    too damn long... so please pardon the saliva droplets...
     
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  8. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    Leave IBB out of this.
     
  9. BlueMouse

    BlueMouse 2020 World Champions

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    The best 1-2-3-4 punch gets you into the playoffs, but the best 1-2 wins you a World Series.

    It's a long season, so who knows what September will bring, and I'm still not convinced Greinke is the best 2 punch... but I feel like we currently have the best 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 punch, and that must be worth something.
     
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  10. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    This x 1,000

    If Beckett returns to form, he could easily become the #2 in the roto.
     
  11. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    willing to bet lilly, harang or cap are better than a lot of team's #5's, if not #4's...
     
  12. CapnTreee

    CapnTreee Guest

    Still not convinced? 13 K's in 5 innings... batters swinging at smoke... many stats show him as one of the 5 best in pitchers in either league... Former Cy Young winner... used to winning without much support...

    He's the real deal...
     
  13. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    I still think the Phillie's 1-2 and 1-2-3 look damn good. Injuries will probably decide the difference anyway.
     

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