So, hey.

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by southerndodgerfan, Dec 23, 2013.

  1. southerndodgerfan

    southerndodgerfan Dodgers Enthusiast

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    Questions for 2014
    The following is a list of issues, concerns, thoughts, and questions that I have been wrestling with about the upcoming season (and beyond). Because I have not posted in months, it will be long and arduous. Read it if you like. Comment if you will. Skip it if it bores you.
    We have money. I do not think we have as much as everyone thinks (at least until the final tv numbers are quantified) but we do have money. However, we also have some housecleaning that HAS to happen. They are: Kershaw extension, Hanley extension, and sorting out the outfield.
    The Pitching:
    Tanaka______________________ There is a ton more going on here than just a decent pitcher getting posted. He is considered at least a number 2 when he walks over here. He could be a number 1. However, there have been questions about workload and overuse. The 20 million buy –in (that’s truly what it is at this point) is a joke. At least 20 teams will bid it just to see where they land. According to Bowden, he is the "yankees to lose"--and that is from a very pro LA fan. Given the yankees horrid pitching staff and their need to feel significant again, they will be the front runners. Broken down, most are figuring between 6/90 - 6/120 after the posting fee. In essence, between 15 - 20 million annually.
    Things to consider: Kastan has stated again and again that we are moving away from using FA as a pool for on-field product. That said, with Tanaka's youth, abilities, and upside--he appears more like a very very high draft pick. How much are those worth? When one considers what has recently happened with foreign players, it seems that we are somehow seeing the cream of the crop all at one time. How much would you give to Darvish right now? You are looking at rotation of Kershaw/Greinke/Tanaka/Ryu/Haren.
    It comes down to the question of whether he is an expensive luxury we do not need. Is there ever enough starting pitching? Can one have too many good pitchers? Do we have other needs that are more pressing? Do we have a guy in the minors who could mirror his numbers? Put simply, if Zach Lee was projected to be Tanaka—would you sign him to a long term contract at his age?
    On a side note, how many are actually thinking that Beckett comes back awesome or that Bills is pain free and throwing like he did when on? We are talking two major surgeries. While we are on the subject, has anyone considered which Haren we are getting? Yes, I know he had great numbers in the second half and we have seen how filthy he is when he is on. Yet, those first half numbers were pretty bad. I have always hated facing Haren and would love it if other teams starting feeling the same way.
    Kershaw___________________Let's be honest, the Kershaw thing should raise an eyebrow or two. He has NOT signed an extension. I am praying that by the time I am done typing this is rectified and there were secret meetings being held in order to give Dodger fans a very Merry Christmas. What if he does not? The FA comments are of concern. What is he worth on the open market? Yes, we would be able to beat any price (and probably would). But, who is to say that money is all that matters to Kersh? It could be all about real estate.
    If he walks (don't shoot the messenger), we still have a pretty good pitching staff. However, when starters begin slotting up, we look like a top ten rotation in baseball as opposed to top three ( I consistently argue top 1). If he walks, do we need another starter to ensure we are still dominant? Does Tanaka fill that void? Theoretically, if he is a number 2, we still have a rotation that would make Kevin Towers cry--not that that takes a whole lot. What if he stays? Does that make Tanaka unneeded? If Tanaka is as advertised, he slots in behind Greinke immediately. He also ensures (barring injury) that Beckett and Bills are relegated to the bullpen. Zach Lee, Ross Stripling, and Chris Reed are still watching and waiting for a call. I suppose it comes down to the question of whether the Dodgers trust any of these kids to take the bump every 5th day. Yes, potentially our offense should keep us in most games. However, if you look at the close games in the NL West last year, one has to wonder if an innings eater is the best chance to win.
    In summation, we walk into the year with the following rotation: Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Haren/? The first three appear a lock. We can only hope that all three just reproduce last year’s numbers. I worry that Ryu may slide backward and Greinke was better than advertised and is due a regression. Again, Haren is a question mark and the 5th spot seems in limbo until at least ST.
    The Offense
    Our lineup appears set. We have filled all holes that needed filling for everyday spots. I suppose that we still have a question at 2nd due to the mystery surrounding Guerrero. Okay, perhaps, I overstated having all holes filled. No one appears to know what is going on with him. When questions have been asked, reporters were told that they would not be able to ask about him. This begs two distinct schools of thought. The first and most scary is that he is far from ready and we may have wasted 24 million on a part time guy. The second and coolest scenario would be that we have seen how good he is and we are hiding him until ST to keep him a mystery. I want the second but have seen enough to know the first is real possibility. To catch lightening in a bottle twice in two years would be unheard of (unless you are in the STL farm system, I guess).
    Outfield---------I am not buying that we will walk into 2015 with 4 outfielders at those prices. Look at the market. Choo's contract screams that Ethier is could be moved today. Next year's FA class is terrible, horrible, incredibly bad, and another one hundred synonyms. One will be moved. Ethier is not VernonWells and this market is not that market. Same for Crawford. Kemp is only being moved for a haul unless there are health issues that have not come to light. If there are, one has to think that we are eating that contract. Ironically, there beauty of Crawford is that his issues have been talked about ad nauseum. Everyone knows what they are getting.
    The Youth:
    There will come a point when we have stifled our youth. There are teams who do not rely on their farms save to trade and test. Despite McCourt's need to save money and implode our farm, this is not our way. Kastan seems set on getting us back to where we were and probably better. Pre McCourt we had an influx thanks to Evans and White. That team looked very good. Even Kent smiled occasionally. On the other hand, do we still overvalue our product? Does every team? This is the quandary of farm systems. Is Joc a legit middle of the order hitter? Is Lee a number 2 or a number 4. Is Seager better than his brother? Right now, it depends on who you ask. However, I do like having the options, finally.
    We have a plethora of young pitching. At this point, none of have been listed as a true ace in the making. Urias is the closest thing but he is a long way away. In a perfect world, Puigs happen. A young player comes up, makes and impact, and the team moves forward. But, we know this is not the norm. There are struggles. When a hitter struggles, you hope that you have enough offense to counteract bad at-bats. When a pitcher struggles, you hope that the offense can score enough to keep you in the game. You then get to play the whole “is he ready” game. Bullpen or starter. Bench or regular. Did we overhype? Et al. Nothing is guaranteed.
    I like what we are doing. We are playing in all markets. I do believe that Kasten has a plan. His tenures with the Nats and Braves were steps toward building in LA. I think we are on time table and we do have two more years to hit the WS with the current product. After that, we will be playing the same game as everyone else. That allows us three years to keep elevating our farm. When one considers the rollercoaster ride of the last decade, one can see where we have been and where we are going.
     
    carolinabluedodger likes this.
  2. Dodgers99

    Dodgers99 DSP Legend

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    The Kershaw issue shouldn't be a concern as of yet, Felix and Verlander both signed extensions in february and March last off-season. It will pick after the holidays, and get done sometime during spring training.
     
  3. 4everblue

    4everblue DSP Regular

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    SDF, havent you learned we all have a really short attention span and wont read such a long post??? Based on that, here are my answers to what I think are your questions...

    1. We will sign CK to a monster contract... biggest ever in baseball
    2. We need to extend Hanley, but start thinking about him playing some 3B
    3. We dont need Tanaka, but it would be a plus. I would rather spend money on him than prospects on Price
    4. the lineup is set. They need to keep the 4 OF until its proven they are all healthy. When healthy, trade Ethier.
     
  4. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    this
     
  5. southerndodgerfan

    southerndodgerfan Dodgers Enthusiast

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    I completely agree on Price. I like Price but he could be ours in two should he not sign an extension with whomever is his newest club.

    I agree that Tanaka is a luxury but I am very intrigued at the prospect of a 25 year old that can slot in for the next six years plus.
     
    Irish likes this.
  6. carolinabluedodger

    carolinabluedodger DSP Legend

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    That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out post.

    Don't let it happen again.
     
    Irish likes this.
  7. southerndodgerfan

    southerndodgerfan Dodgers Enthusiast

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    Anyone quoting My Cousin Vinny is awesome. No question.
     
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  8. carolinabluedodger

    carolinabluedodger DSP Legend

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    You were serious about dat?
     
  9. southerndodgerfan

    southerndodgerfan Dodgers Enthusiast

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    I shot the clerk.
     
  10. Doughty8

    Doughty8 DSP Legend

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    Oh yeah, you blend.
    Mrs. Reilly and ONLY Mrs. Reilly!
     
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  11. KOUFAX0000

    KOUFAX0000 DSP Legend Damned

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    Holy shit. I'm going to have to read that on the airplane.
     

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