DODGERS 2020 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS THREAD

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by ColoradoKidWitGame, Dec 18, 2019.

  1. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Baseball Prospectus
    1. Gavin Lux, SS/2B
    2. Dustin May, RHP
    3. Josiah Gray, RHP
    4. Miguel Vargas, 3B/1B
    5. Keibert Ruiz, C
    6. Tony Gonsolin, RHP
    7. Diego Cartaya, C
    8. Jeter Downs, SS/2B
    9. Kody Hoese, 3B
    10. Gerardo Carrillo, RHP
    11. Michael Busch, 2B/OF
    12. DJ Peters, OF
    13. Jacob Amaya, IF
    14. Omar Estevez, IF
    15. Mitchell White, RHP
    16. Connor Wong, C
    17. Michael Grove, RHP
    18. Dennis Santana, RHP
    19. Cristian Santana, 3B/1B
    20. Brett de Geus, RHP
    Baseball America
    1. Lux
    2. May
    3. Ruiz
    4. Gonsolin
    5. Gray
    6. Downs
    7. Cartaya
    8. Hoese
    9. Busch
    10. Luis Rodriguez, OF
    Baseball America Top 100
    4. Lux
    20. May
    81. Ruiz
    82. Gonsolin
    84. Gray
    86. Downs
    97. Cartaya
    Just Missed
    UR. Hoese
    UR. Busch
    UR. Rodriguez

    Fantrax HQ Top 250

    6. Lux
    47. Downs
    56. May
    90. Hoese
    101. Gray
    118. Rodriguez
    147. Busch
    156. Alex De Jesus, SS
    169. Andy Pages, OF
    207. Cartaya
    222. Vargas
    235. Gonsolin

    The Athletic's Top 50 from Jim Bowden

    7. Lux
    39. May
    46. Ruiz

    The Athletic's Top 105 from John Sickels, formerly of MinorLeagueBall.com

    4. Lux, A-
    14. May, A-
    31. Ruiz, B+
    84. Gray, B
    95. Downs, B

    MLB Pipeline Top 10 Per Position
    RHP
    6. May
    Catcher
    7. Ruiz
    2B
    6. Busch
    3B
    10. Hoese
    SS
    2. Lux
    8. Downs
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020 at 11:22 AM
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  2. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Some notes from BP on our Top 10:
    • They think that Lux is a legit superstar in the making. His bat would play at any of 2B, SS and 3B, making him extremely valuable. They think his future is 2B or 3B as he is going to outgrow SS in a few years.
    • May is also a star in the making as they see him as a #2 type. His stuff is so good that it causes a lot of weak contact and he has improved every year. If he develops a true K pitch, he's a true ace, but there are no negatives about him beyond that. He's one of the few "safe pitching prospects".
    • Gray is a mid-rotation starter with a bulldog mentality. He will attack the hitters with 2 plus pitches and a third that is coming along well. His size, lack of a plus plus or 4th pitch makes him somewhat risky.
    • Vargas took a major leap forward in 2019 and now projects as a middle of the order bat at 3B with good defensive skills. His power is still developing and his bat to ball skills are incredible, but his upside is solid.
    • Ruiz stagnated across the board last year and some of the little red blinking lights have become bright red warning signs. He has lost superstar catcher upside and viewed more as a solid regular. Needs to improve on both sides of the plate in 2020 and especially start to show more selectivity or he is going to begin to fizzle.
    • Gonsolin is viewed as a back of the rotation starter or multi inning reliever. The lack of deception on a fastball that has now lost multiple ticks since moving to a starters role(after originally jumping to 100) is what is holding him back the most. He can fool guys the first time through, but could start to see trouble in the bigs if he can't start to locate better. His splitter FB combo are good enough to make him a dangerous reliever.
    • Cartaya is still a bit away, but he is showing signs of being an above average regular. He has the tools to be a star catcher, but he is so far away that he is still a tremendous risk.
    • Downs showed great improvement across the board last season. He still has some things to work on at the dish, otherwise he could really struggle at the big league level. He can play good enough D at SS, but projects better at 2B, especially if the bat improves.
    • Hoese showed some promise, but his swing caused some concern amongst scouts. Since he was limited last year by a balky elbow, they want to see more and if the Dodgers development staff can make his swing a bit cleaner. If not, he will rack up the K's at the MLB level.
    • Carrillo is here due to a late season surge that saw his FB tick up to triple digits after returning from a shoulder injury. For being only 6', it is an incredibly easy looking pitch from him and if he can start to locate it just a bit better, it is ++ pitch. Command is his biggest problem, as well as 3 secondary pitches that are all very average or below. Due to these factors, his projections bounce from rotation piece to reliever, but he is still very young.
    Overall, in their opinion our farm has weakened in depth over the last couple of years and we have become much more top heavy than in years prior. 3 of our top 10 should graduate this season and at most maybe 5 of our top 20, so the club should have a chance to rebuild. The superstar upside is not there though as it has been in the years past if and when both Lux and May graduate.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2019
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  3. darth550

    darth550 Baba Yaga

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    Lux is awesome because he can play baseball, looks good and MAKES MINIMUM WAGE!

    All hail our next untouchable asset that we won't trade!
     
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  4. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Some notes from the 11-20 range:
    • They are not high on the Dodgers belief that Busch will be able to handle 2B. I saw some slick plays from him there this year, but he can make some blunders too. His hit and power tools look to be above average and he has advanced pitch recognition.
    • Peters still wows with the pop when he gets ahold of one as he has ++ power at this point. His rebuilt swing is still long and his ever present great pitch recognition has diminished as he has climbed the ladder. He looks like a 4th OF'er now that will run into a few, but will be worked over by good breaking pitches.
    • Amaya continued to play above his skillset and has been impressive. He looks like a no pop utility guy, but a valuable one.
    • Estevez finally showed improvement after a couple years of stagnation. More improvement puts him in line for being a decent bench player that handles both SS and 2B as he doesn't have one overly impressive skill.
    • White is a frustration. He will look great, then look awful and it is literally a game by game thing. He can't stay consistent with his mechanics and it is causing immense issues. His stuff has diminished enough that he's no longer considered a front line starter and may be a swing man at this point. He was moved to the pen for the AFL, so that is something to watch.
    • Wong is looking like a solid backup catcher if he can fix some issues on the upper half of his swing. He has the stuff where if he fixes some things in his mechanics, he could legit take off, but that has not happened yet. The club has started to work him at 2B and 3B likely in preparation for the new 26 man rosters.
    • Grove was BABIP'd to death and while his numbers were bad, it doesn't paint the whole picture. He allowed a lot of weak contact, but remained a fearless competitor. Another year from TJ should show us more of what he truly could be.
    • Dennis Santana is a mess and as I presumed, the injury fucked everything up. Velo is way down and he's lost command of his pitches. His once ++ FB and +/++ Slider are all out of whack. Maybe another year from his injury will help out the once promising starter.
    • Cristian Santana took another big step this year, but there was a set back too. He settled down his swing into something much more calm and fluid which resulted in a solid batting average, but he swings at EVERYTHING and that has become a major problem. Defensively, he saw improvement and there is belief that he could be a very solid defender at the position. He does have the tools to be a star, but he has GOT to get his pitch recognition under control.
    • Our first de Geus write up was really positive! Since moving to the pen, he saw his pitches play up. He controls each of his quality FB, Slider and Curve trio well and attacks hitters with them. He should see the bigs this season out of the bullpen.
    • Edwin Rios got a bonus chat. He is out of the top 20, but some on staff feel he is one of our top prospects. His D has become solid, but he is so slow that it makes long term potential at anything except 1B hard to believe. He will need to hit like he has at every level, but for the tools to carry at 1B, he is going to have to become more selective.
     
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  5. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    Looks to me like Wong might be a Barnes-lite type (if there is such a thing).
     
  6. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Ehhhh, not really. Wong has much more power and a meh hit tool while Barnes had a strong hit tool with no power. Barnes has regressed badly though and it appears more mental than anything though he’s an elite framer and a much better defender. Wong has potential to be better than what Barnes currently is at the plate, but his upside is not what we saw in 2017 out of Austin. If anything, he’s really a Will Smith lite.
     
  7. blazer5

    blazer5 DSP Legend

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    I hate the way Barnes frames pitches...he drags everything. I actually use him as a “heres what not to do” when coaching.

    I cannot believe he gets away with it as well as he does. It’s shameful actually.
     
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  8. fsudog21

    fsudog21 DSP Legend

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    I was probably referring more to his physical stature (no homo) than his skill set.

    Thanks for the response.
     
  9. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Baseball prospectus dropped their Padres top prospect list and it is, well... scary. Led at the top by the best pitching prospect in baseball, followed by one of the fastest rising pitching prospects in baseball, both with front line starter upside and both already reaching AA. The rest of the list is comprised of a mix of high end pitching talent and guys with everyday star upside. This is a system where if it pays off, they are going to be a monster in about a year or two to the likes of what the Astros have become. The big difference in the orgs is that the Padres can not go to the salary numbers year over year that the Astros have done to remain competitive, but the pieces are in place for a decent run of the Padres being a power. It will be interesting to see how the Padres go about signing players and prospects as they may try the early signing thing to avoid huge arb numbers later, plus a couple extra years of control. That can work, but has also backfired tremendously for some clubs. They are already said to be in talks to extend Tatis and I would guess Paddack too. If the Myers and Hosmer contracts do anything, it appears that they just have slowed the clubs ascent by locking up $32M a year of the clubs payroll(roughly a quarter of their overall payroll last year and a fifth of it going forward) on below average producers.

    Rarely does every prospect pan out and rarely does one actually live up to expectations. This is now one of those instances where they have a lot of bullets in the chamber that could hit the target and even if a fraction do, they will still be a tough team to deal with inside the division. The Dodgers farm was built this way, the Astros before them and the Royals before that. Not every strong farm pays off, but ones that are THIS loaded generally do. The Dodgers should be watching this and looking at ways of staving off this potential threat, instead of going about things business as usual. Our system is still strong, but not what it once was and now that some players are fizzling out or getting ready for FA, they need to add impact from outside the org or risk falling behind.
     
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  10. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    That is something I have noticed as well. He gets high marks for his framing, but I have seen enough of him to know that he costs strikes too with that movement you talked about. If you watch Yadi, it is super smooth with no real jerkyness about it. You can tell that Barnes definitely does not have it in the eyes of some umps so the club may have to be wary of who is behind the dish going forward before rolling him out there.
     
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  11. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    Baseball America came out with their review of our Int'l prospect signings from this past season and they were incredibly positive.

    Luis Rodriguez, OF - They make him out to be a potential 5ish tool centerfielder. He is said to already be incredibly advanced for his age with a strong feel for the strike zone and at recognizing pitches, so he regularly makes hard contact. He hits the ball to all fields, with power to CF, the pull side already and flashes of oppo-taco power. He is already showing average/above average in game power with a strong chance for that to get to the + range. He is not a burner, nor does he have a cannon, but the speed grades out to above average and the arm is currently felt to be average. He is a CF'er as long as he does not bulk up too much even without elite speed due to his "excellent defensive instincts". The only negatives on him are whether or not he can stay in CF and not get too big, but otherwise he sounds like he has the makings to be a star player.

    Yeiner Fernandez, C - They seem to really like this kids bat. They think he is one of the better hitting catching prospects on the way with 20+ HR potential due to his very advanced hitting skills. There are some similarities to Ruiz here in that he makes a TON of contact in the zone and has a tendency to chase outside of it, but making contact in the process. Unlike Ruiz, Fernandez drives the ball with plenty of power behind it, so as long as he can keep doing those things, he will be fine. His abilities behind the plate could be a problem, but he shows enough potential to become a regular at the position as the things he needs to improve on most are teachable. He is a compact 5'9" 190lbs which hurts some of his projections, but he has a live swing that should translate. With catchers, it is important to remind folks that it is a slow climb and this guy will likely have that. His bat could play, but he will likely have a stunted learning curve since he has so much to work on defensively.

    Lesther Medrano, RHP - Not a fireballer by any stretch as the 16 year old is topping out in the mid-80's, but he is very advanced for his age in the command department, with 3 pitches he locates well to both sides of the plate with a curve and an above average change up. He is 6'2" and only 160lbs, so they think velo will come once he packs on some weight and the Dodgers are one of the better development clubs at helping kids find a bit more in the tank. Where his velo goes will have the biggest impact on his projections, but the feeling is that he will have what it takes to be a starter due to his advanced feel for 3 pitches already.

    Luis Valdez, LHP - Copy and paste everything I just said about Medrano, only flip it from the left side. Same height, same weight and age, only difference is that Medrano has a better change and Valdez velo tops out at 89. Both have very solid bases to build off of.

    There were plenty more signings, but these ones stood out the most to me. The Dodgers seem to be doing a really good job lately of working the Latin America market and should have a couple star level prospects from the area over the next couple of years.
     
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  12. Go Dodgers

    Go Dodgers Active Member

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    I understand wanting to hold onto prospects. But there comes a time where you have to give up something to get something in return. Lux may be a superstar or he may be the next Blake Dewitt. This team was so close and management did very little to help get them over the hump. Someone in the rumors thread used Chris Sale as an example, who the Red Sox got for Yoan Mocada and essentially three minor leaguers. It's like our entire Front Office is so numbers driven that they'll never take a chance. Someone else mentioned to trade Lux and May for Lindor and Clevinger because you would be getting two proven players (both arguably stars) while giving up two unproven prospects. I completely agree. Take a chance. If it doesn't work out, so be it. But to have been so close 2-3 years in a row, and do nothing... That's shameful and a slap in the face to every Dodger fan.
     
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  13. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    This FO has traded a number of top organizational prospects, which for some reason people continue to ignore and only ever focus on the ones they refuse to move. Seager, Bellinger, Buehler and Pederson have all been labeled untouchable in the past and have developed into All-Stars, MVP and CY Young candidates. Urias is the only one that hasn't panned out from the older untouchable lists and there is still a good chance that he impacts the roster positively. Smith is currently untouchable as he is our starting catcher and has already had MLB success, Lux is untouchable due to him being the #2 prospect in all of baseball with MVP upside and May is untouchable cause he is also projected to be a front of the rotation starter and good lord did he look like something special down the stretch. When you have prospects that are this good AND MLB ready, you do not trade them lightly or you become the Phillies of the past 8 years. The FO has been right so far with their untouchables, but they have absolutely also made trades of top system prospects. De Leon was #2 when he was traded as well as a top 25 prospect, Montas was #3 when he was moved for 2 rentals, Calhoun was #3 when he was traded for a rental, Diaz was #4 when he was moved, Holmes was the #5 or 6 prospect when they moved him in the same deal as Montas and Peraza was also in our top 10 when he was sent out while a number of other prospects from the org are making impacts or climbing prospect charts with other orgs. Each one of these guys mentioned were Top 100 spects at the time of their move. This FO will absolutely trade prospects, but they also want to make sure the value is there. While the club may not want to part with certain players, there are guys that are being blocked by said untouchable that are damn good too and based on who we are rumored up against in trade talks, it does not make much sense to throw in any of those 3, especially when moving guys like Pederson and Seager at this point should net a good enough return to make a package for Clevinger, Lindor and Betts work.

    Look, I'm as frustrated as anyone, but at the same time I am pissed hearing year in and year out that Club X is only interested in Dodgers superstar prospects W and Z for player Y... then player Y is traded to Team V for nobody prospects and a bag of balls. Something fishy is going on with that and with the Dodgers consistently churning out MLB roster impact players throughout their Top 30 list, it is about god damned time that teams open up their eyes to more than just our prospects with superstar upside knocking on the door for a year or two of control.
     
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  14. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    Great analysis, but I do have a quibble or 2.

    At what point does a team decide that it needs to go all out for that all important WS win? I’m not talking about the Gnats (I’m still baffled how they pulled off 3 WS). I’m thinking more on the lines of a Marlins WS, Phillies WS, Kansas City WS, Cubs WS. These are your more traditional one off wins.

    The question is would you sacrifice a host of prospects for 1 WS win....maybe 2.....and then a 10 year span of rebuilding, or year after year after year of being in the hunt and never getting to the promised land.

    For all the All-Star prospects we have had, the main goal has eluded us. Are we at 32 years without a WS win? We’ve had untold rookies of the year, some in sequence (remember Mondesi, Piazza, Karros, Hollandsworth, and now Seager....Bellinger?)

    It’s a philosophical question right. Go for it and suffer the consequences (look where the Gnats, Phillies, Nats and Cubs are right now), or keep pinching the purse strings and be risk adverse for a decade of cheap thrills.

    I can’t blame the FO of FAs not returning calls or not giving the FO the chance to counter, but maybe they should have given offers that could not be refused from the get go.

    And when it comes to trading top draft picks? Well they’re desirable until they are not. How much is Seager worth now in trade? How about Joc? What will Cody be in a couple of years and another couple of failed post season whiffs?

    Yeah, we are all chastened by the Pedro Martinez/Delino Deshields trade, but that is one of the all time epic mistakes. Will the Dodgers be forever trigger shy by something done decades ago?

    I’m in the camp of going all out for the next few years....trade and spend ungodly sums of money to get at least 1 WS under the belt. The amount of goodwill among the fans, a good chuck of which still can’t see their local games, will be incalculable. If the Guggs are worried about ROI, well compare a year or two of WS wins versus 20 years of a depreciating asset. The math wonks should be able to work this out.

    There are only so many rookies of the year waiting in the cupboards. That too will depreciate over time.

    Striking now while the iron is hot is a time honored strategy. It comes with risk. But victory comes to the bold. No risk, no reward.
     
  15. No Name

    No Name Active Member

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    Going all out doesn't buy you a championship. Does it even raise the odds by 5% ? The better strategy is the one they are following. Keeping sustainable success and trading pieces to help when needed. The odds are greater in the long run by making it to the dance each year and hope to get hot.

    We may not like it. It may not be sexy but math is never sexy.
     
  16. Gebbeth

    Gebbeth DSP Legend

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    It hasn’t worked. And given the strides the Yankees seem to be making with FAs (Cole), home grown talent (Judge), and trades (Stanton), do you feel confident in the Dodger 2020 season?

    One of the definitions of stagnation is staying still and doing nothing.
     
  17. No Name

    No Name Active Member

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    Speaking of the Yankees, the go all in strategy hasn't seemed to work for them.

    In regards to stagnation, the Dodgers have not stayed still and done nothing. Every year they make a trade mid season to maximize their chances. They usually wait to see what they need and what will best help that run.
     
  18. ColoradoKidWitGame

    ColoradoKidWitGame DSP Legend Administrator

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    There are no guarantees in baseball. In both your scenarios the Dodgers could come away with none or one championship, in only one of those scenarios do they come away with the potential for many. I don't disagree that the FO and ownership have been too stingy recently, but I would also hate to see them spend wildly, killing our future and us still coming away without a World Series(see early 2000's Texas Rangers). The biggest bunch of bullshit in all of this is they didn't need to trade wild amounts of prospects this offseason to reload and be dangerous, they just either chose not to be all that aggressive or were used to get higher dollar amounts from other teams in more desirable locations.
     
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  19. Finski

    Finski DSP Legend

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    With me, it is like this:

    If the Dodgers break the traditions and win a World Series in 2020 using two rooks as starters and two more in the lineup AND win despite spurning the big free agents the last few years, I'll take back every negative 'Fuck Kasten & the front office' take I've spewed in the last three years.

    But when they don't win ... again ... well, you know I'll be Henry the Eighth, I am, I am ... second verse, same as the first.

    I expect nothing this year but disappointment.
     
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  20. No Name

    No Name Active Member

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    That's not really fair. Whether the Dodgers got Cole,Betts, Lindor,Bryant, Arenado or none the chances of winning is small. At the end of the day, those guys raise the chance of winning at best 5%. Is a 5% bump worth abandoning the sustained success model? No. Exponential opportunity has a way higher success rate than the all in approach.
     
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