A competent Bills in 08 and 09 changes so much about those Philly games, it pains me to actually think about it... that and a competent bullpen.
What do they get paid on the open market? Isn't the value of a #3 related to the quality of the 1 and 2 starters? Look at the Phillies rotation are you saying that their #3 isn't worth 10 million. It is the quality of the starter and not their spot in the rotation that should dictate salary. Otherwise you are dooming yourself to a weak rotation. I suspect Bills as a free agent would have gotten more and the Dodgers decided not to find out. Bills has his shortcomings but he is only 27 with a 70-52 lifetime record and 3.68 era. That could get you a chunk of change on the open market. Bills would have been a free agent in 2013 and this would have been his walk year. So are we saying we wish he wasn't under contract and was able for free agency after this season?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/03/chad-billingsleys-extension.html Time will tell the wisdom of the decision but he is under team control for two more years.
The difference between the Phillies' #3 starter (Hamels) and the Dodgers' (Bills) is that one has proved they can be an ace and the other has not. You're right, it is about the quality of the pitcher. Hamels has the quality of an ace and next off-season, he's going to be paid like it. Bills, with the quality of a #3, shouldn't be paid $11.5MM. Billinglsey has solid career numbers because most of that damage was from the beginning of his career when he started 40-19. The dude should be winning 15+ with an ERA between 3.00-3.35. The guy is a totally different pitcher from '08-the beginning of '09.
agree, 2010 was arguably one of his, if not his best, years. Maybe not the actual win-loss, ERA results but he walked less than ever before, gave up the fewest HRs he ever had, and 50% of the time he was getting groundballs which is fantastic. And he's definitely a #2. There aren't many teams that could say they would have a #3 better than Bills, and he' d match up good enough with most #2. I'd bet my car that even after his 2011 he would get paid a bit more than 10 million a year in the open market. Can we have a fantastic year with his results of 2011? Probably not, but Bills is hardly a problem and just needs to be how he was and we'll be fine in the pitching category. It's the losers who swing the bats that need to step up more than anyone else on this team.
Ultimately if RUNS cross the plate when he pitches, that's all that really matters. You win baseball games by scoring more than the other team. When I watch Chad pitch, the other team scores quite a bit. He's very talented. That's why I am so hard on him.
Reading all this about Bills, you could almost change the person your describing , (foregetting about that he's a pitcher and speaking in generalities) and you could be talking about Loney. "Why? Why? WHY"?-----Nancy Kerrigan
Thats what folks are missing that young pitchers rarely make it to free agency and get extended by their teams. Thats why pitiching is such a prized commodity. Note the salaries that journeyman are getting. Just look at Randy Wolf how he jumped from 5 million with us to 29.7 million over three years with the Brewers. That is at his age with his stats. As with most things it is not what we as fans think something is worth it is what the highest bidder is willing to offer/pay. Such is the case with our franchise and what appears to be the approx purchase price. That being said is there no GM that would give Bills 10 million next year? If he has a good year that 10 million would be cheap.
The following link is 2012 starting pitcher salaries. Some are higher and some lower than Bills. Some under team control and some not. Of note are former Dodger pitchers like Wolf-10m, Lowe 15m ,Pitchers who left in recent years while we were trying to build a staff. I didn't think we were that much in love with Kuroda this time last year were we? Edwin Jackson is making 11 million this year. Would we rather have Bills under contract for a couple more years at 10 million or Lilly for another year at 10.5 million this year and whatever for next year. http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/mlb/starting-pitcher/ In the following ranking of post 2011 free agent pitchers we signed two of the top ten and some folks don't seem happy about that. We need to be aware of what is not available in free agency as teams are not allowing talent especially young to reach it. http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/Ranking-The-2011-12-Free-Agent-Starting-Pitchers.htm Feb 16 2012 A solid group of starters hits the free agent market this season, several with prime years remaining. As always, picking pitchers is a tough business, but it's a good year to restock arms. A look at the top 10: 1. C.J. Wilson: The ace of the two-time AL champs, a lefty to boot, will get the biggest deal of the offseason among the pitchers, even as he went 0-3 in the playoffs for Texas. Look for the Yankees and Rangers to get involved in a bidding war. In his two years as a starter, he's averaged 15.5 wins and has an ERA in the low 3s. The Yankees will be able to afford him a little more, but will the way the season ended bring Wilson back to Arlington? 2. Mark Buehrle: Not the big-splash kind of free agent, but at age 33 (and left-handed), he's a proven veteran winner. He's won exactly 13 games in each of the last three years and he gives up his share of hits and homers, but his ERA was a solid 3.59 in 2011. He's not a great fantasy baseball option (strikeouts aren't his forte), but I bet he'd be just fine in the rotation of a contender. 3. Edwin Jackson: Like Buehrle, he's a guy on this list who has thrown a no-hitter in his career. But the reason he's bounced around is walks - he gives up a lot of them. That keeps him from being an elite option. But after going 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts with St. Louis, he'll have plenty of suitors. 4. Hiroki Kuroda: The Japanese right-hander was 41-46 in four years with the Dodgers, but with a very solid 3.45 ERA. He made $11.7 million last season, however, and in this market shouldn't expect a raise. At least not a big one. He'll turn 37 over the winter. 5. Roy Oswalt: A bigger name than some ranked higher on this list, but he's had durability issues and is be an "old" 34. A veteran of 2,154 innings, he went 9-10 last season. But that sparkling career ERA is still 3.21, and he was a two-time 20-game winner in his 20s. Not the strikeout pitcher he once was, but he'll make an impact somewhere. 6. Aaron Harang: The former NL strikeout champ had a nice season in the pitching-friendly confines of Petco Park, bouncing back from three consecutive losing seasons to go 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA for the Padres, lowering his ERA by 1.68 points. He's back on the free agent market and looking for a raise from his $5 million salary last season as he declined a $5M option. 7. Paul Maholm: Who is he? A decent pitcher on what has been a really bad team. Maholm, 29, is a career Pittsburgh Pirate, which means his 53-73 career record might be deceiving. He had a 3.66 ERA last season and isn't a strikeout pitcher, but for a team looking for a decent No. 4, he could pay off. A change of scenery could do him good. 8. Javier Vazquez: All he does is throw about 200 solid innings every year, but Yankees fans will remember him as a bust in 2010, the one year he didn't. He went 13-11 with a 3.69 ERA for the Marlins at age 34 in 2011. He was 5-0 with a 0.71 ERA in September. But he has hinted at retirement. 9. Bruce Chen: Was the ace of the Royals this past season, which is sad considering the young talent that Kansas City has tried to stockpile. He went 12-8 with a 3.77 ERA, and as a lefty at age 34, he'll garner some interest. 10. Chris Capuano: Another "who-is-he" in the Maholm mode, but went 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA as an innings-eater with the Mets after some so-so years in Milwaukee, bouncing around their system. Not a power guy, but a team looking to see if he's a late bloomer as a crafty lefty will give him a shot. And this was called a good year! Want a better picture scoll through the list in the link of available starting pitchers and see how many of them are under 30.
Free Agent Starting Pitchers Name Age 2011 team 2011 stats 2012 team Contract Erik Bedard 33 Red Sox 5-9, 3.62 ERA Pirates 1 yr, $4.5M Mark Buehrle 33 White Sox 13-9, 3.59 ERA Marlins 4 yrs, $58M Chris Capuano 33 Mets 11-12, 4.55 ERA Dodgers 2 yrs, $10M Bruce Chen 34 Royals 12-8, 3.77 ERA Royals 2 yr, $9M Bartolo Colon 38 Yankees 8-10, 4.00 ERA A's 1 yr, $2M Aaron Cook 33 Rockies 3-10, 6.03 ERA Red Sox 1 yr, $1.5M Kyle Davies 28 Royals 1-9, 6.75 ERA Blue Jays minors Doug Davis 36 Cubs 1-7, 6.50 ERA White Sox minors Justin Duchscherer 34 A's Injured not signed Zach Duke 28 D'backs 3-4, 4.93 ERA Astros minors Jeff Francis 31 Royals 6-16, 4.82 ERA Reds minors Armando Galarraga 30 D'backs 3-4, 5.91 ERA Orioles minors Freddy Garcia 35 Yankees 12-8, 3.62 ERA Yankees 1 yr, $4M Jon Garland 32 Dodgers 1-5, 4.33 ERA Indians minors Aaron Harang 33 Padres 14-7, 3.64 ERA Dodgers 2 yrs, $12M Rich Harden 30 A's 4-4, 5.12 ERA not signed Livan Hernandez 37 Nationals 8-13, 4.47 ERA Astros minors Edwin Jackson 28 Cardinals 12-9, 3.79 ERA Nationals 1 yr, $11M Kenshin Kawakami 36 Braves 1-10, 5.15 ERA Japan Hiroki Kuroda 37 Dodgers 13-16, 3.07 ERA Yankees 1 yr, $10M Rodrigo Lopez 36 Cubs 6-6, 4.42 ERA Cubs minors Paul Maholm 29 Pirates 6-14, 3.66 ERA Cubs 1 yr, $4.75M Jason Marquis 33 D'backs 8-6, 4.43 ERA Twins 1 yr, $3M Kevin Milwood 37 Rockies 4-3, 3.98 ERA Mariners minors Roy Oswalt 34 Phillies 9-10, 3.69 ERA not signed Brad Penny 33 Tigers 11-11, 5.30 ERA Japan 1 yr, $3M Oliver Perez 30 Nationals minors Mariners minors Joel Pineiro 33 Angels 7-7, 5.13 ERA Phillies minors Mitch Talbot 28 Indians 2-6, 6.64 ERA Korea 1 yr, $300,000 Javier Vazquez 35 Marlins 13-11, 3.69 ERA Retired Tsuyoshi Wada 31 Japan 16-5, 1.51 ERA Orioles 2 yrs, $8.15M Tim Wakefield 45 Red Sox 7-8, 5.12 ERA not signed Chien-Ming Wang 32 Nationals 4-3, 4.04 ERA Nationals 1 yr, $4M Brandon Webb 32 Rangers Injured not signed Dontrelle Willis 30 Reds 1-6, 5.00 ERA Phillies 1 yr, $1M C.J. Wilson 31 Rangers 16-7, 2.94 ERA Angels 5 yrs, $77.5M Chris Young 32 Mets 1-0, 1.88 ERA
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