How many SBs will Dee have in 2012?

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by bestlakersfan, Mar 15, 2012.

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How many SBs will Dee have in 2012?

  1. Under 35

    5.0%
  2. 36-45

    15.0%
  3. 46-55

    30.0%
  4. 56-65

    30.0%
  5. 66-75

    15.0%
  6. 76+

    5.0%
  1. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    He looks like he his going to damn near steal base almost everytime he gets on, the way he is going in ST and towards the end of 2011.
     
  2. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    idk how much he'll be on base tbh
     
  3. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    funny
    that's exactly what i was thinking
     
  4. GoatMilk

    GoatMilk DSP Regular

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    well look at it like this
    coco crisp had a .314 OBP last year, and still had 49 steals
    Ichiro .310 OBP and had 40 steals
     
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  5. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    I'm the guy who was disappointed we didn't trade (package) him for an ace pitcher in 09. I don't think he's going to be a major league hitter nor defender. He's really exciting to watch with the youth and speed, but I just think overall he's not that good.
     
  6. GoatMilk

    GoatMilk DSP Regular

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    i think that's a little too down on him
     
  7. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    I'm going with 72.
     
  8. Dodgers99

    Dodgers99 DSP Legend

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    This.

    Dee's speed is off the charts compared to those two.
     
  9. PartyBoy13

    PartyBoy13 Member

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    If he has a .300 OBP over 500 AB's then he will be on base 150 times so I don't think its out of the question for him to have 50+ SB's.
     
  10. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    like tb said
    it all depends how much he gets on base
    at this point, he's not the most disciplined hitter
    imo, needs to cut down on his swing
    he should never hit the ball in the air
    like willie mays hayes... he should have to do pushups
     
  11. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    I look at it like this:

    Dee plays 150 games
    Gets 4.5 AB per game, on average
    His OBP is .325
    150 x 4.5 x .325 = 219 times he will reach base
    10% of times he will hit for extra bases
    .9 x 219 = 197 he will be on first base
    If Dee steals 33% of the time it equals 67 SB
    If Dee steals 40% of the time it equals 79 SB

    So my range is 67-79, going with my initial gut number (pre the above calculation) is 72.

    BTW, this is not a Ruven-style post, it is easier to explain this calculation like this. :) Speaking of Ruven, where the hell is he?
     
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  12. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    i'm going a bit more conservatively, 55
     
  13. Doughty8

    Doughty8 DSP Legend

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  14. THINKBLUE

    THINKBLUE DSP Gigolo

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    Harsh
     
  15. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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  16. southerndodgerfan

    southerndodgerfan Dodgers Enthusiast

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    the answer is 42
     
  17. dodgers

    dodgers DSP Legend

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    54

    He's going to get on base more than his offensive ability would suggest, guy can beat out routine grounders regularly.
     
  18. Shaw

    Shaw DSP Legend

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    I think he'll get 50ish. But let's do a little math. Some of the numbers change around very slightly since I'm doing some rounding with percentages, but it gives you a general idea:

    For Dee:
    1. Assume 162 game average stats
    2. OBP of .325 * 674 PA = gets onto base 219 times
    3. 197 hits - 26 2B - 6 3B = 165 1B hits
    4. 165/197 = 84% of hits are 1B
    5. Draws 20 walks. 20 + 165 / 20 + 197 = 185 / 217. On 1B 85% of the time.
    6. 69 SB. 69 / 185 = steals 37.2% of the time.
    7. 37.2% + 15% = Dee will be in SP (or scored) 52.2% of the time that he is on base.
    8. .522*219 = 114 times he gets into scoring position w/o the help of another batter.

    Now, let's look at, e.g., Rafael Furcal our previous SS:
    1. Assume 162 game average stats
    2. OBP of .348 * 728 PA = gets onto base 253 times
    3. 184 hits - 32 2B - 7 3B - 12 HR = 133 1B hits
    4. 133/184 = 72% of hits are 1B
    5. Draws 65 walks. 65 + 133 / 65 + 184 = 198/249. On 1B 79.5% of the time.
    6. 33 SB. 33/198 = steals 16.67% of the time
    7. 16.67% + 20.5% = Furcal will be in SP (or scored) 37.17% of the time that he is on base.
    8. .3717*253 = 94 times he gets into scoring position w/o the help of another batter

    So, even though the ESPN analysts are bearish on Dee, using 162 game average calculations yields the result that he will actually be in scoring position on his own accord more than Furcal. Yes, this is only one metric. Furcal had more power, for example. But isn't that what we want out of our leadoff hitter? Get into scoring position for Kemp and Ethier to bang them in.
     
  19. Blue Thunder

    Blue Thunder DSP Regular

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  20. 4everblue

    4everblue DSP Regular

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    the answer is around 15, all in the first 6 weeks of the season... after that, he'll be shipped back to AAA with a .240 BA and .275 OBP...
     

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