I guess, Bills has an option at the end of this year with a 3 mil buyout. Not sure the team can buy him out and then offer him arbitration.
Honestly, he's never lived up to his ability, except in short spurts. But I think it's ludicrous to say he has no heart because he wouldn't bean an opposing player.
I think the "never lived up to his ability" is an unfair way to characterize someone who has logged more than 1,000 quality innings. I think it's fair to say that of someone maybe like Dee who they hyped up? idk. But Bills is who he is and he's done what he's done and that has been being a solid #2/#3 which is SO freaking valuable from a draft pick. Just because some people put unrealistic/unfair expectations on him and he wasn't a Cy Young award winner or he wasn't as good as Kershaw doesn't mean he sucks. I fear something like that might happen with Zach Lee. I digress, but yeah, he's been good and we've gotten loads of value out of him for not that high a cost.
Juan Pierre was a lead off hitter, so RBI's would never be a stat for him. Andrus is a 2 hole guy.....so yeah he would/should have a better RBI count. I also think you might need to dig deeper into your stats. 60 rbi's in 157 games in not that great. Our 2 hole guy Mark Ellis brought in 48 RBI's in 126 games. I think it would be safe to say that he could have posted at least 12 more RBI's in 30 more games. As well I put more emphasis on a players last year stats vs his career stats. Lookin at Ellis's splits for last year, for RISP he was .282 AVG / .336 OBP. Andrus splits for last year for RISP were .248 AVG / .306 OBP. Still don't know why the Dodgers are even talking to Texas about this guy.
I know Manny was pissed, but how are people sure that Torre didn't go to Bills and tell him not to retaliate? Look at the way Joe is trying to run the league now, it seems like he could have said something of the sort. Unless we were there none of us really knows the whole story. The thing about Bills is that he isn't a whole lot different than 99% of other players to come into this league. Loads of talent, but just can't put it together for extended periods of time. He is a 3 on most teams, but I would be more than happy to see him as our number 5 behind Kersh, Greinke, Ryu and Tanaka.
That first round that year was brutal. Honest to god, we got Kemp and Bills out of that draft and that draft was utter shit for pretty much everyone else. I'm just glad we got Bills when guys like Tim Stauffer and Kyle Sleeth got picked ahead of him. Only other two decent pitchers that got drafted in that round were Maholm and Jon Danks.
My belief is that this was the discussion that didn't go anywhere, Ned - "How about Andrus for Crawford or Ethier?" Daniels- "Nah, how about Andrus for Kemp and lots of money?" Ned- "Nah, see ya" Daniels- "Bye Ned!"
Another reason not to sell low on any of the 3 available OF's, next seasons pretty awful OF FA market. Some big names, but all old. Not to mention, the rumors as to what is about to happen with players contracts may make teams more accepting to taking on more money in a trade.
When I say 'never lived up to his ability' I mean just that. Not that he didn't live up to fans expectations, who does? Chad has always had raw talent, tons of ability, and great stuff. It just seems that he seldom puts it all together at the same time to be as dominant as he is capable of being. We all saw it the last 6 games before his arm quit on him. I draw a distinct line between ability and 'hype'. I think kidwithgame and knockdown will tell you I consistently pointed out on the other board that Billz NEVER had a losing season. I know wins aren't how you measure ability, but to never have had a losing season on some Dodger teams that quite frankly sucked...that speaks volumes to me. I agree he's been good and a good value, I just see so much more he could have done with the ability he has.
well all that seems like a problem for you being that you made the comparison between their bats first. bottom line is Andrus is a proven run-producer with a .296 career avg with RISP. in addition to 60+ RBI the last 3 years, Andrus also has scored an average of 90 runs over the last 4 seasons. basically, he gets runs on the board and could be dynamic at the top of our lineup. that's one of the reasons why LA has interest in him...another is his defense of course. i didn't say 60 RBI was all that great...i said it shows that Andrus' bat isn't as bad as you're making it out to be + his .296 career average with RISP shows he capable of making an impact. Andrus isn't 33-34 years old...he just turned 25. and we like Mark Ellis and what he brought in, but he's old. well if TEX and LAD make this trade they're not making it based on last season or asking for the worst of these players...they're making it based on the careers of Andrus and Kemp. so if you " don't know why the Dodgers are even talkin to Texas about Andrus because he wasn't great last year "...based on that same rule, why would Texas even be talking about Kemp? Kemp hasn't been up to much the last 2 years. Andrus has been the far more productive guy over the last 2 years. see how that works?
fwiw... Who says no to Matt Kemp for Elvis Andrus? By Grant Brisbee | SB Nation -- November 15, 2013, 11:48amThe hot rumor de nuit, from Ken Rosenthal: Ken Rosenthal✔@Ken_Rosenthal #Rangers inquired on Kemp, but had concerns about his health, remaining 6 yrs/$128M. #Dodgers like Andrus. But again, no traction. 8:57 PM - 14 Nov 2013I absolutely love trade scenarios that make me argue with myself for an hour. Because I see both sides. The Rangers need an outfielder, and they have an extra infielder. The Dodgers have an extra outfielder, but they need an infielder. Kemp is a tremendous talent with question marks, owed a large sum of money. Andrus is a tremendous talent with question marks, owed a large sum of money. Oh, man, this is a Nora Ephron movie. We have to spend two hours or several months getting these people together when it's so obvious to the rest of the world what should happen. Well, that's just the instant reaction. Let's take a closer look. Elvis Andrus Owed: $123 million over nine years You might think that's a lot of money. And … okay, it is. His career high in homers is six, and that was five years ago. He hasn't improved a lick in his rate stats since he was 20. He is an underwhelming offensive player. There aren't too many different ways to describe him as a hitter. But he can play defense. And he can run the bases. Both of those things have value. A lot of value if the player in question plays shortstop. That was part of Jon Daniels's thinking, I'd guess. Andrus has a floor. And that floor is awesome. He had a lackluster offensive season, even compared to his previous seasons. He was still worth four wins according to Baseball-Reference.com and three according to FanGraphs. He just turned 25, the same age as Mike Moustakas and Will Middlebrooks. Both of those players are enigmas still. Andrus is a good shortstop with room to grow. That's worth $14 million a season, give or take. Matt Kemp Owed: $128 million over six years That's the same money for three fewer years for a player who is four years older. There's no sugarcoating that. And the player in question has spent far more time on the DL. It wasn't that long ago, though, that Kemp was one of the most valuable players in baseball. After he signed his big extension, Dave Cameron ranked him as the seventh-most valuable player in baseball. Things have changed since then, sure, but think about what kind of player would command that kind of respect after signing the huge extension. That's the kind of player Kemp was at the All-Star Break last year. A garbage-disposal accident. Sloth bite. Dropsy. Those are all legitimate reasons to think Kemp might be finished at 29. Anything else, and I'm dubious. The more likely explanation is that Kemp had an injury-filled season-plus, but he's still mostly the player he was at the start of last year. Mostly. I'd take the chance. For $128 million, even. Maybe. Now, if I'm building a team from scratch -- a 30-team expansion draft -- and I have the choice between Andrus and Kemp, I choose Andrus. Every time. Call me crazy, call me late for dinner, but I'll take the upside of a light-hitting, stellar-defending, 25-year-old shortstop with a low, low floor over the upside of a potential MVP candidate with worrisome health, especially when there are three more years at the same price. But if I'm the Rangers, and I'm getting offers from other teams, I consider this idea. There will be other interesting offers. But nothing that will be as seamless. Imagine the Cardinals offering Shelby Miller, for example. It wouldn't be Shelby Miller straight up. The Rangers would need to send cash. Now you have a $40 million Shelby Miller, or whatever. Maybe that's better than a $128 million Kemp, but the Rangers are still short an outfielder or two. Where are they going to find the upside that Kemp offers? By offering Shin-Soo Choo the same money and keeping Andrus? … Yeah, actually, that works out better for them. Similar risk, but they keep Andrus, whom they trade for pitching. Or a first baseman. Or anything they danged well please. If I'm grading this trade, I'm putting the onus on the Dodgers to offer more. To which the Dodgers fans reply, "You are stupid." That's cool, that's cool. I can understand getting attached to Kemp and not wanting to trade him for a banjo-hitting glove-wiz. If I have to make a prediction, though, I'll wager that Andrus has the better career from 2014 through 2019. The Dodgers would disagree. And that's why a deal would never happen. It would be pretty cool if it did happen, though. Just think about this trade idea two years ago. Baseball does have a way of messing with you.__
kinda ridiculous if that's the reason a deal wouldn't happen. we have 2 players right now who are a better suited than Kemp is for the 3-spot in the order...Hanley and AGon...and one day one could expect Puig to be hitting there as well. we also have Ethier, Puig, CC, and Joc waiting in the wings as guys who can play centerfield if Kemp is gone. the point is, we don't actually NEED Kemp. now, they don't need to sell low on Kemp, but getting Andrus isn't selling low. he's a good buy...especially when you consider that his defense is great and it fits with our great pitching. toss in the fact that he's driven in runs @ a .296 clip in his career, steals 30+ bases on a regular, is 25 years old, and is a top of the order bat...yeh, he's a good buy. it makes sense for LAD to have interest in him. at his best, this is a 4.0 WAR guy.
presuming kemp is no longer kemp and, after giving him such a lucrative contract, it might not send out the best message (to players thinking about coming here) that we'd be so willing to give up on him so quickly without giving him a fair shot plus, he did appear to be exhibiting signs of being his former self before going on the shelf* and giving up a guy who (before being injured) was inarguably one of the best players in the game a mere two years ago, for a good (but not great, imo) 2b with no stick, just doesn't make sense to me not saying you're wrong, because only time will tell... just saying we're looking at it differently * http://wapc.mlb.com/lad/play/?content_id=30914485&query=matt+kemp http://wapc.mlb.com/lad/play/?content_id=30945417&query=matt+kemp
2 years removed from a near 40/40 season, enough said. We have a SS and his name is Hanley Ramirez and there is no guarantee that he'll want to play 3rd. IF he came to Ned and said I'll play 3rd then MAYBE you consider it. Forget the monies owed that should matter in the way we evaluate Matt or any other player because that sometimes is product of leverage or timing as much as ability. IMO we focus too much on whether the guy is overpaid because they are ALL over paid. Focus on whether or not Andrus will bring comparable stats to this team and that answer is no. What is the rush anyway? I know Matt will put up numbers of the average player but he could be back to being Matt of old. The needs of both teams are not likely to go away anytime soon.
no, even if Kemp does return to form Hanley and AGon are better fits for the 3-spot. Kemp strikes out too much. even in his productive years he's been a K-machine. Hanley is a better hitter in general and AGon doesn't strike out nearly as much every year.
Can't believe I'm about to say this but...a strikeout is just an out, it's only marginally worse than a ground out of a fly out-and it's the out least likely to be turned into a double play. Now I feel dirty, I need a shower. As long as the OBP and SLG are good, strikeouts are mostly unimportant. A low OBP and low SLG, however make strikeouts bad. So in 2011 his K's were not that important because he led the league in OPS+ and total bases. Last year his percentage of strikeouts increased, whether due to injury or sukkitude is open for debate, but his OBP was the 2nd worst of his career and his SLG was THE WORST of his career and that magnifies his strikeouts immensely.
i've come to soften my stance on strikeouts always argued they were unproductive outs still rather someone put it in play, but... if they're hitting .324/.399/.586 w/39hr and 126rbi (as kemp did in 2011), we can leave the productive outs to the others
Stopped reading after "Kemp, even with returning to form, is not as good as Hanley and A-Gon in the 3 spot". He was the best player in baseball.
yeh, it's least likely to be turned into a double play, but of course contact hitting and execution is important. you feel dirty because you know how many men we left on 3rd base this year because of strikeouts. a tale as old as time, my friend...it's not ideal to have a strike out artist hitting in the 3-hole
