DODGERS FA Destination Contest

I am going to use the MLB Trade Rumors Top 20. We did 10 last year, but people kept adding as the offseason went on. Here you go and feel free to add any others you are confident about.

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (QO)
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B (QO)
3. Stephen Strasburg, RHP (QO)
4. Zack Wheeler, RHP (QO) PHILLIES
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B (QO)
6. Madison Bumgarner, LHP (QO)
7. Yasmani Grandal, C WHITE SOX
8. Nicholas Castellanos, COF/CIF/DH
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
10. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (QO) TWINS
11. Marcell Ozuna, LF (QO)
12. Didi Gregorious, SS
13. Will Smith, LHP (QO) BRAVES
14. Dallas Keuchel, LHP
15. Cole Hamels, LHP BRAVES
16. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH (QO) WHITE SOX
17. Michael Pineda, RHP
18. Mike Moustakas, 3B REDS
19. Kyle Gibson, RHP RANGERS
20. Tanner Roark, RHP

 

For me:
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (QO) Angels
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B (QO) Dodgers
3. Stephen Strasburg, RHP (QO) Nationals
4. Zack Wheeler, RHP (QO) Phillies
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B (QO) Nationals
6. Madison Bumgarner, LHP (QO) Brewers
7. Yasmani Grandal, C Brewers
8. Nicholas Castellanos, COF/CIF/DH Giants
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP Angels
10. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (QO) Twins
11. Marcell Ozuna, LF (QO) Cardinals
12. Didi Gregorious, SS Marlins
13. Will Smith, LHP (QO) Giants
14. Dallas Keuchel, LHP Braves
15. Cole Hamels, LHP Brewers
16. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH (QO) White Sox
17. Michael Pineda, RHP Astros
18. Mike Moustakas, 3B Brewers
19. Kyle Gibson, RHP Padres
20. Tanner Roark, RHP Mariners

 

Answer for questions 1 - 20: Not the Dodgers

 

0-20. Looks like Seager’s post season batting stat.

 

I would be shocked if Houston landed a guy like Stras since they are said to be close to tapped out financially. They already have 147M committed in 2020 and that is before raises to Springer(12M in 2019), Osuna(6.5M) and Correa (5M) amongst others without even a starting catcher on the roster. Hard to see them spend that significantly on one position when they may need 2 starting pitchers.

 

I think WSH is way more likely to re-sign Strasburg than Rendon

 

IIRC, Nats offered Harper $100M in deferred money last offseason and of course, he passed, so I don't know how likely it is that they sign any of these guys. Corbin ended up taking that deferred money offer and I believe Scherzer's contract has a gang of deferred money as well, but that doesn't mean everybody is OK with that structure.

Certainly don't believe the Yankees or Halos have to defer anything. Trout's deal has no deferred money nor does Pujols' contract. Cardinals' final offer to Pujols had $40-50M in deferred $ and obviously, he wasn't going for that. Pads' deal with Manny..no deferred $. No deferred $ for Hosmer either. So we'll see what the Nats are about pretty soon

 

Yeah, it also sounds like Stras wants to stay with the club and I guess he finally moved his family to DC before last season which helps their case out. Not that either one is easily replaceable, but the Nats top prospect is also an MLB ready 3B/SS. With no great pitching on the way, they may elect to to go the route of strong rotation and hope the kids bats can keep them in things.

 

From what I have been told, their are plenty of nice places to live out there and I am sure with all the politicians and diplomats in the region, their are some incredibly strong schools as well. In regards to Texas, the offers would likely be nowhere near the same. As I mentioned, the Astros finances are said to be a bit tighter this offseason unless they start unloading some of their stars, which is not expected. Also... it is Texas, even though the Astros play in a dome it doesn't change the fact that for roughly 3 months out of the year, it is downright awful to go outside. If a player likes the franchise they came up with, they are more likely to want to stay. There is generally less pressure to perform, more leeway for mistakes and a comfort level with the people around you, too many people disregard those reasons when players make decisions like this.

 

Wouldn't close the book on the Nats for a couple reasons..Stras and Soto. That Scherzer took deferred money, Stras may be willing to fall in line and do the same.

Rendon on the other hand..he's reportedly already rejected a $210M offer from the Nats, so I'd be interested to know how much of that money was deferred. The " might " part could be another factor in why guys are turning down deferred offers. Of course, one of the things about getting millions and millions of deferred money long after you've retired is that you have to be here to see it

 

The Nats have also changed up their deferral philosophy in the last couple years from what I can tell. It isn't that they do the Bobby Bonilla yearly payout for 30 years. They are doing like $5+M lump sums for a couple years to get those payments over with. huh? mentioned taxes and some players likely want those deferrals to be paid out at the end of their careers when they are living in a more tax friendly state. So these guys are likely thinking retirement and after they are done, they move to a Texas or Arizona.

 

The size of these top contracts is so absurd that deferred money, upfront money ... it all sounds good.

But the agents for these guys know how to invest the money well, and they should be able to get a safe 7-8% return on invested money. Compound that over multiple years, and it adds up quickly, it even makes up for tax loss pretty quickly.

For any team flirting with the luxury tax, it actually makes more sense to pay out contracts early if you can sign players for a lower amount because the perceived/actual value is the same or better than a deferred contract at a higher amount of $.

 

Yankees don't like this.

 

My Wild Card is Puig to the Marlins.

 

RIP Don Mattingly

 

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (QO) - Dodgers (YOLO)
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B (QO) - Dodgers (YOLO)
3. Stephen Strasburg, RHP (QO) - Nationals
4. Zack Wheeler, RHP (QO) - Angels
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B (QO) - Braves
6. Madison Bumgarner, LHP (QO) - Braves
7. Yasmani Grandal, C - Reds
8. Nicholas Castellanos, COF/CIF/DH - Cubs
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP - Yankees (They need a fat lefty to replace their fat lefty)
10. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (QO) - Twins
11. Marcell Ozuna, LF (QO) - Cardinals
12. Didi Gregorious, SS - Yankees
13. Will Smith, LHP (QO) - Giants (That QO gonna ruin his market).
14. Dallas Keuchel, LHP - Angels
15. Cole Hamels, LHP - Phillies
16. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH (QO) - White Sox (another guy screwed by a QO, basically a 2 win player).
17. Michael Pineda, RHP - Twins
18. Mike Moustakas, 3B - Brewers
19. Kyle Gibson, RHP - Actually Kyle Gibson sucks, How TF is he a top 20 FA? No prediction, he shouldn't be on this list. I'm replacing him with Puig, Puig >>>>> Gibson
19. Yasiel Puig - White Sox
20. Tanner Roark, RHP - Royals