Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by Dodgers99, Oct 28, 2018.
If he looks like he doesn't have it you pull him.
Don't have to wait till he gives up runs.
More like making the great stat in baseball be the base.
You get 1 point for each base you get.
There are multipliers though for how you got the base.
Scoring position and Runs are also very important.
A walk is worth 1 point, that is the basic point.
A hit where you don't advance to scoring position either by your own doing or your teammates is still worth just 1 point.
If you steal 2B its worth another point.
So a basic hit or walk plus a steal ends up worth the same as a basic double.
During extra innings or after the 7th inning you get overtime pay.
In other words, each point is worth a point and a half.
Same during situational hitting where you have 2 strikes on you or there are 2 outs in the inning.
The system should be made to reward the best baseball players. Not necessarily the best athletes or the most skilled players.
But the guys who come up when you need it most and who have the fundamentals down.
The guys that help you win vs the guys that help you get on sports center.
Same with pitchers.
It all boils down to how well you do in terms of bases and how well you do in terms of runs.
Can you put yourself or others in positions to score runs, can you score runs or drive them in?
That will drive your score.
Numbers that mean less will still be counted at their base level and will be part of the equation.
But the best of the best will have the highest scores.
With fewer paper tigers making the list with super high OPS but shitty contact skills.
a wig and a date
i'd be willing to take one for the team
have a little grey in the face though so pretty uncertain that subterfuge would work
think maybe the Mouse has a better chance of pulling it off
I'm up for it. What kind of coach tells his players to take an obscene off of a pitcher who never throws to 1B, only to run back to the bag when the pitch is delivered? You know what would rattle Lester, Dave? Taking an obscene lead and then stealing 2B. Much more effective.
Well the season is officially over, and the offseason has begun. It was a disappointing end to a season that somehow saw the Dodgers both under and over perform expectations simultaneously. A weak NL was enough for the Dodgers to take advantage and get to their second World Series in as many seasons, but they ran into a clearly better team in the Boston Red Sox. With that said, here are the storylines to watch in the offseason with some personal opinions on what could happen and some refreshers of things that we may have forgotten.
Dave Roberts, his Option and The Clubhouse
What Happened: The Dodgers came into the season as one of the top teams likely to make the World Series and their head coach was hoping to nab an extension off that. 2018 dealt a nasty first blow when Justin Turner was hurt in one of the final games of the spring which was then compounded a month later after the loss of superstar shortstop Corey Seager. These two events alone may have helped Roberts keep his job after a second straight WS appearance. The club and FO is said to love him, but there have been some rumors that he struggled to keep the clubhouse together when the team was down and it was Justin Turner who came in to help reunite the team.
Rumors: Word quickly spread that the Dodgers and Roberts are hoping to reach an agreement on an extension this offseason, but this thing is not a done deal whatsoever. They have 10 Days to pickup his 2019 option, but then would have a full year to reach a deal.
My Take: I have been really disappointed with Roberts at times and I will say that his moves on the world’s biggest stage have been almost directly responsible for the Dodgers losing more than one game in the WS. At the same time, those moves have looked cataclysmically worse thanks in large part to a player shitting all over himself, which should also place blame on the player. Roberts is said to be well loved in the clubhouse and to the surprise of many here, is regarded as one of the best coaches in the game (I know, right!?!). I don’t see the club firing the coach that has helped lead them to two straight World Series appearances. He will probably get an extension with a modest raise, but I could see him still being on the hot seat if the team underperforms in 2019.
What Happened: The Dodgers repeated their play of platooning at a higher than usual rate for a top team in baseball. The club would change their lineup on a near nightly basis in season and after trade deadline moves to pickup lefty mashing RH bats, the Dodgers saw their offense crush both handed pitchers down the stretch. This method got exposed in the postseason when somewhat reliable bats went cold and opened multiple holes and cracks in the platoon methodology.
Rumors: The rumors are aplenty on this one. From ones saying that players hating it, players feeling neglected, free agents not wanting anything to do with us and so on so forth. I would not have included this section had it not been for the words of Andrew Friedman himself that said that the FO is already looking at this as a potentially broken system once you get into the playoffs. Off nights, more elite pitching and an inability to maneuver a roster for a stretch can cause this system to collapse in on itself and guys to go cold.
My Take: I felt change was coming this offseason, but these words signal to me that the club is likely in for a bigger change than I originally thought. Platoons are fine if not great when you need to manipulate the 7th,8th and /or 9th spots in your lineup. They are not great when every night comes with a line change of your leadoff hitter and middle of the order bats. A team with the Dodgers pockets should not need to take these measures to put forth a competitive team. We saw it rear its ugly head from the NLCS onward, if a guy in a platoon gets cold, the opportunities to catch back on are harder to come by with so many off days. The FO is apparently well aware of this and are going to do something about it. Guys like Muncy and Bellinger are probably safe as they are valuable, cheap, above average everyday bats that don’t show drastic platoon disadvantages. Others however, could be on the chopping block. We will talk about trades coming later in this.
What Happened: One of the greatest pitchers in franchise history folded when the team needed him most… again. A poor performance in the WS seemed to set the tone for a club that just could not get their momentum going. Kershaw had his worst year since 2010, while also getting injured once again. Kershaw’s avg velocity dropped almost 2 full MPH’s from 93.21 MPH’s down to 91.31 MPH. That is an incredibly scary drop. His Avg velo never really fluctuated until this season. Kershaw also saw his highest H/9 since his rookie season and lowest K/9 since that rookie season. He did see a drop in his HR/9 from last year, but it was still tied for the second highest number of his career.
Rumors: Most folks in the industry expect him to opt out within the 3 days that he has. The growing belief is that he will opt-out, but with a new contract already in hand from the Dodgers to retain him. The feeling is that he will net a 5 year deal in the $20-25M AAV to stay with the club.
My Take: Honestly, I am pretty over Kershaw and am truly “meh” on the subject. The Dodgers didn’t lose either of the last two World Series just because of him, but he was a major contributing factor in the club not getting over the hump. If they agree that he is no longer the ace of this staff, approach him as such and he returns on a modest contract, then fine. If the whole reason they resign him is to lead this team, then there are bigger problems on the horizon. One thing I worry about with Kershaw is where is he going to be at going forward. A dramatic decline in stuff this year was scary, but a guy like Hill has done wonders with significantly less stuff. I don’t think Kershaw leaving would break the clubhouse either. I have never heard about him being a leader, nor taking someone under his wing. I think if he goes, we will be sad/disappointed that he never won the whole thing with us, he’ll annoy us by having a good couple of seasons (hi, Zack Greinke!), then be pretty average by the end of his deal.
The Front Office and Ownership
What Happened: The Dodgers are in the middle of two separate investigations. Dodgers majority owner Mark Walter and Guggenheim are being investigated by the SEC for misappropriating funds in regards to dealings with the club (they put a lot of investor money into the club that they maybe should not have). The FO is a part of a larger investigation by the DOJ in regard to human trafficking and baseball’s dealings with International prospects in the Latin America.
Rumors: The ownership investigation has been going on for a while now and it does not seem like they are too worried about it. Updates have been sparse, but it is something to keep an eye on. The DOJ is a bit more talked about and the Dodgers have been the most prominently mentioned club since they kept records on rumored problem scouts.
My Take: Never fuck with the SEC, but no real rumors that the club could go up for sale makes me think this is not going to carry the water some thought it did. The DOJ thing scares the hell out of me. They crushed the Braves with their ruling and jettisoned a pretty decent GM from baseball… forever. This all circles the big class that landed Heredia, Diaz, Alvarez and others. From my POV, it looks like when the new FO took over, they discovered these bad eggs before whipping the Int’l slate after the signings. The scary thing is whether MLB says that was enough or not. If heads roll, that would be REAL bad. If the FO gets wind that they could lose some guys, watch for some moves involving members of this class.
What Happened: Free agent Yasmani Grandal put up a great all-around year in 2018 after going into the season expecting to split considerable time at the position with 2017 breakout star Austin Barnes. Grandal continued his run as one of the top 3-5 catchers in baseball with a knack for white hot streaks and shitting all over himself in the postseason. Barnes injured his elbow early in spring and never came close to matching his 2017. What was supposed to become an easy transition has become a HUGE question mark. The Dodgers also hold 3 of the top catching prospects in the game, but none appear close to being ready for the start of 2019.
Rumors: There have not been any rumors on the matter yet. J.T. Realmuto’s agent just said that he will not be signing an extension with the Marlins and wants a trade.
My Take: Grandal will get the QO and if he accepts he is doing the Dodgers a huge favor. If he declines and walks, he is doing the Dodgers a huge favor. To me he is a win-win scenario, unless the club elects to sign him to a long-term deal. The Dodgers need to close at least a 1-year gap before potentially filling the spot internally. The options in FA aren’t great outside of Wilson Ramos and there are not many
trades that make sense for a position that is down in the talent department. The club could roll the dice on Barnes regaining some of what he lost, but that would need to be paired with a heavily upgraded 1-7.
What Happened: Manny Machado came in to add star power to a middle of a lineup that was sorely lacking after the absence of Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger regression. Manny ended up taking his game up a notch on defense, but saw his offense fall inline with his platoon splits. A solid, but not great showing in the playoffs was overshadowed by negative comments about hustle from Manny, two instances of stepping on a 1B leg and multiple baserunning/hitting lapses.
Rumors: The media always irrationally reacts to the here and now (Jon Heyman is a fantastic example of this), but the growing belief is that Manny likely cost himself a lot of money after getting traded to the Dodgers. That aforementioned platoon splits where he goes from megastar to more of a very good player. His antics towards the end of the season also brought back up the once buried clubhouse and dirty player issues. Some believe he needs to go somewhere that he is not the face of the club and should be more of just an important piece in a deep lineup.
My Take: The word was the club would probably have resigned him had they won the World Series. Manny’s antics and shitty play in the series probably means that they will move on from him and avoid the dilemma of finding a spot to put one of Turner, Seager and Machado. I worry that if he gets say a $250M contract instead of the once perceived $300M+ one, it could negatively impact his play on the field and he is apparently a pretty emotional guy behind the scenes. I loved Manny at times, but man did his energy and attitude turn me off. I will be shocked to see him come back and the only team that may want him now is probably the Phillies. If he is brought back, that would be a hell of an interesting thing to see play out.
What Happened: Ryu put together one hell of a year that saw him put up career best numbers. If it was his last season with the club, it was a good one to go out on. A hamstring injury in the middle of the year cut Ryu’s starts to only 15, but likely kept him fresh for the long playoff run. While Ryu was great in the regular season and magnificent in the ALDS, 3 turbulent outings in the NLCS and WS put much more emphasis on just how he is much more reliable at home and on extended rest. His velocity numbers stayed consistent with his career mark, but a growing list of injuries is a concern.
Rumors: There has not been much said about Ryu outside that he would like to return to LA and won’t be leaving the MLB just yet.
My Take: The Dodgers have a solid core of pitchers already signed for the 2019 season. Kershaw is probably priority #1 for the FO and would most likely like to get that dealt with ASAP. If Kersh returns then Ryu is probably done, if Kersh walks then they will probably try to bring back Ryu. The org has some top-flight pitching that could also see a somewhat unexpected return of a really good Julio Urias to it. Ryu should get a QO along with Grandal and an opting out Kershaw, if he were to sign that deal, like Grandal it would be a great turn for the Dodgers. I expect him to walk after the teams agrees to a long-term deal with Kershaw.
Jansen & The Bullpen
What Happened: The Dodgers bullpen once again put up good numbers as a group, but holy hell did the cracks crush them this season. Pedro Baez showed himself to be the most reliable pitcher out of the pen the final couple of months and closer Kenley Jansen blew two more WS games to bring back into light that he is probably not a big game pitcher. On top of that, Jansen will be having open heart surgery in November.
Rumors: Nothing going on here yet but expect the Dodgers to be active.
My Take: I don’t know what you do here. As we learned this year, throwing gobs of money at the problem doesn’t seem to work, trading for reliable arms doesn’t seem to work all the time and developing from within is a crapshoot. Scott Alexander was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017, then we all saw what happened in 2018 and he is now a legit DFA candidate before 2019. This should show you that building a bullpen is not easy. Jansen will probably be the closer opening day 2019, but I do think we see a much stronger pen going into the season than years past and there will be a legit setup pitcher or two acquired.
What Happened: Logan Forsythe never built on a solid 2017 postseason rebound and ended up somehow being even shittier in 2018 than he was in 2017. He was traded for Brian Dozier who came in and put up just as shitty numbers after a fantastic start with the club. Kiké stepped up and put together a breakout season paired with some great defense at the position but lost it at the plate towards the end of season and didn’t regain it in time to help the club. Chris Taylor had a roller coaster of a season that saw him playing mostly OF after the acquisition of Machado. Max Muncy played the position at times and saw decent defensive numbers while manning it, but it certainly didn’t look pretty while he was there.
Rumors: The only rumor that has shined light on this position was what would happen if the Dodgers retained Manny. Nothing else has come out on the subject yet.
My Take: This will be an interesting position to watch. The club does not have a prospect to immediately fill this spot, but Gavin Lux may be closer than previously expected. The club may and probably should look to a short-term option outside the org. Scooter Gennett and Whit Merrifield would each be great additions, but the prospect prices on each could be a bit daunting. The team needs to go into 2018 with the idea that Kiké and Chris Taylor are both bench bats, not everyday players.
Rumors: Early word is the Dodgers are expected to be incredibly active on the trade market. A glut of OF prospects, needs at multiple positions, the potential for a lot of money to play with and Friedman admitting to a change needed in the way the team is constructed should cause this perfect storm. More than a couple folks feel the Dodgers could be the if not one of the most active teams in the trade market this year.
My Take: I think we are in for the most active offseason with this FO that we have seen. The bullpen will probably be addressed the most via trade. I think the team will move on from Kemp, Pederson, Puig, Wood and someone else that we were just not expecting (potentially Maeda). I think the club is going to try to do a bit of an overhaul while still staying the most dangerous team in the NL West. I’m expecting one HUGE trade that adds a significant piece to the roster, most likely a corner outfielder that can bat in the middle of the order.
Rumors: The Dodgers are said to be planning on pursuing Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Patrick Corbin, AJ Pollock and Clayton Kershaw if he opts out.
My Take: This FO has shied away from big long-term contracts and I would not be shocked if the tradition continues past this offseason. I could see the FO trying to fill some gaps, potentially like a Wilson Ramos at C via FA, but I have a hard time seeing them unload close to $300M on a guy or take a chance on a generally unproven Corbin or injury plagued Pollock. This team has not been snake-bitten by passing on high priced players in recent seasons, but have seen other contenders take those hits in their stead. If it does change this offseason, Bryce Harper could be the guy that they do it for. Stan Kasten has a personal relationship with Harper and it would bring him closer to home. I would LOVE to keep Puig if the team were to acquire Harper, I think those two would play great off of one another. Craig Kimbral could also offer an interesting pursuit.
Looking forward to reading this later tonight!
And at that point Kersh should just fork over half his yearly earnings.
If we're taking your ass out after 3, 4, 5 innings..son, you aren't worth that money and that's that.
That would be an interesting turn of events and I’m definitely not opposed to it. It will be interesting to see if the club does in fact pursue Realmuto. Doesn’t have the defensive upside of either Smith or Ruiz, but if either one turned into the all around player he is today, we’d be fucking thrilled.
WHOA, Morosi is reporting that the Giants want Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball ops. That would not be a very ideal situation.
Dodgers third base coach, Chris Woodward is said to be a finalist for the head coaching job with the Rangers. He was a shitshow sometimes this season, but seemed to figure things out in the second half. Good luck to him.
Can they take Ned Colletti instead?
I would not be surprised if this is the Giants thinking they see a bit of a window in the NL West and once again attempting to buy their way through a downturn. The division is looking at potential steps back this year from the D'Backs(due to free agency losses) and Rockies(likely overperformed in 2018, way too lucky on injury front and still have some baaad contracts tying up payroll), then we are still probably about a year+ away from the Padres getting back in this thing. Early feelings around baseball are that the Dodgers are going to be heavy West favorites this season due to them having the best MLB ready/near ready talent to mix with a relatively young core already to begin with. Not saying it is a wise move, but would not be shocked if their FO believed they have a chance.
Really great post.
I thought that Kenley was getting another procedure other than open heart surgery. An ablation for Afib. It's not fun, but not as serious as open heart..
If it is open heart surgery, Idk if he's back by ST.
Looks like you’re right, I thought it was open heart surgery. The procedure he is getting has about a 3 month recovery time.
Could see Zaidi leaving if he thinks the rest of the FO is going to prison anyways, ha
Hah! This is probably a good sign that folks around MLB don’t think we’re gonna get into trouble!
Or his boss is tired of how he ties Dave's hands and will happily let him go to SF so Dave can finally be the truly great manager he was born to be.
Don't know exactly how to take this one, Rube...
Separate names with a comma.