As does happen, a post by another member got me thinking about the future of the Dodgers. Being the OCD and questioning sort, I began looking at scenarios that could/should happen in the next few. I know that we have not even played one game and I am counting my chickens before they hatch. But, as all of you know, the "what if" game is fun for me (if a bit frustrating). If you are interested in playing, super. If not, just view and move on. This is almost exactly what I was thinking. Sadly, given Hanley's propensity for wearing out his welcome, I have a feeling we will want to find a replacement about the same time he hits FA. I have my eye (as does every team) on Cano. I think it is likely that he resigns with the Yankees but he did pick up Boras and that does say some things. Boras will get top dollar no matter what team is paying. A simple answer would be praying that Dee figures it out and becomes our everyday SS one Hanley is gone. We plug Cano at 2nd and have replaced (and increased) his power and added speed. On the other hand, Dee scares the shit out of me. I am not sure he will ever find it at the MLB level. I want him to but he has not proven he can. Andrus is what we wish Dee could be. That said, he will cost substantially more than Dee. However, he will be 26 and just hitting his prime. Getting a good hitting SS, just hitting his prime, would be awesome. I am not sure TX will let it happen. On the other hand, they are very high on Jurickson Profar who, scouts say, is a true SS and will not have to be moved. So there is a chance, he hits FA. I have been a proponent of picking up the best FA available if the need is there. SS will be a need in two years unless by some chance Dee figures it out. Here is where the mental wheels began to turn. With visions of media deals dancing in my head, I began to salivate. At this point, the voice of Jeff Kent--constant reality check--reminded me that our owners are still trying to actually make money. The issue IS one of money. The haters in the media have already dubbed this team overpriced and modestly decent. It appears we are experiencing what the Yankees endured for years. And given how I so enjoyed giving shit to the evil empire, it is probably--to some extent--deserved. However, I think we are playing things very differently than the Yankees of old. Yes, we have added considerable contracts. But, unlike the Yankees of yesteryear, we have also began pushing for a well stocked farm full of better than average players. The media will never give us a pass. They have found their new straw man and he resides in sunny California where the weather is always nice and the voice of God calls Dodger games. It is what it is. Eso si que es. We do have a ton tied up to certain players and it has created a logjam of sorts. I am very happy with what the ownership has done. I love our pitching situation. Best person wins--how it should be. Juxtapose that with the last few years of buying very low and praying something emerges or sticks. Be that as it may, I could see us shedding contracts after this year. In the following I will break down where I think we are, where we are going, and what are possible answers to questions that may or may not be asked. I have praised them in the past for the outstanding payroll chart and here it is again. http://www.truebluela.com/2010/11/30/1840626/dodgers-payroll-worksheet The coolest part about next year is the contracts we lose. The only real McCourt albatross we are still paying is one more year of Andruw Jones @ 3.5mil per. Yes, we are still paying that POS. As one who was actually happy about the signing, at the time, I apologize every day. Here is where it gets really interesting: Pay attention to who we are NOT paying. The pitching situation is worked out. We literally have four big time starters with an open 5th spot. Lilly is off the books. Cap and Harang have buy outs. That, alone, tells me that one or both are moved. Of course, giving a qualifying offer could hurt them so that will not happen if they finish the year with us. If Bills shows the good Bills, we have a steal at 15 mil per. If Beckett can stay below 4, he too is at or below market value. The former is signed for one more year and the latter is done after 2014. Kershaw is due around 18mil, though it is possible that it will be a big raise from that if he agrees to an extension. Greinke's salary is Greinke's salary. Ryu actually becomes a very cheap 4th starter option @6mil per. Hopefully, he can stay below 4 and go for 180 innings. That would be a great steal for us considering the lambasting we took for the contract. The bullpen situation for next year is interesting. League will have the closer role until he does not. If he can retain the form we saw at the end of last season, it bodes well for late in games. I assume that Jansen will not revert and will be given a nice pay increase. Belli is always a wildcard. If we assume that he avoid booze, coke, hookers, and gets to the airport with his own visa, he too is due an increase. I think that this is a make or break year for Guerra. Which one will show up and for how long? I love the guy but his middle name should be inconsistent. Guerrier will be bought out and Elbert is just a sad reminder of a very bad decision in a draft. The rest, as it stands now, will be a group of young guys fighting for position in a good BP. Next year's bench looks to be a collection of young(ish) kids and whatever veterans need can find in FA. It will not the talk of the MLB but should work for what we are trying to accomplish. I could see Puig coming in as a 4th OFer if he can put it together decently in AA. These does bring us back to the Dee situation. We will have needs as far as backups for most IF positions. Personally, I hope that Castellanos, SVS, Fedex, Cruz, and Sellers all display the ability to be good backups. Long shot but I can hope. The lineup is set save two positions. Revisiting the thought that created this thread, we have two needs in 2014. We need a 3rd baseman or SS and a 2nd baseman. In a perfect world, we would simply sign the aforementioned Cano and call it a day. And, perhaps, we will. That said, internal options are bare. Dee has never really been tried. Castellanos was removed due to defensive issues, and Sellers seems to have an issue staying healthy. Cruz could be an option but we have no idea if last year was an anomaly or glimpse into his soul (I had to wax eloquent--it's Cruz). If we are looking to fill SS/3rd, obvious for one year, Hanley covers one of them. But, he is gone the next year. I cannot see us resigning him. As was previously mentioned, Andrus is certain an option in 2015 but it comes down to payroll and need. Thus far, the media has given us hell for our decisions. They claim that we are tying up payroll to the point that after three years, we are overage team with little good talent. They claim that we have handicapped ourselves for the foreseeable future. I disagree. While I do think we have some issues conflating payroll and personnel, there are still quite a few options available over the next few years to keep us young(ish) and relevant. What are your thoughts?
I don't know that Cano is a viable option unless this team really struggles to score in '13, can they really afford another $100M+ contract with CKs on the way giving them 5 such contracts. Don't get me wrong, I know they can afford it, but these huge long term deals are so risky. On Andrus, you know Boras doesn't let his clients re-sign before that period just before free agency. Knowing that he will hit free agency is also why the Rangers were so eager to move Andrus, and not Profar in an Upton deal. I also realize that Andrus would cost a nice chunk of change, but I don't think he would get a deal on par with the $100M+ that Reyes got due to his currently limited offensive game.
Cano on the wrong side of 30 for 140+ million possibly is very dangerous--really depends on the state of the team and what the market for him is. I love Elvis Andrus and hope he hits the market. Dee sucks. Ideally, he'd be amazing this year, Hanley would be at third, and Dee would lead off. Unfortunately, Dee cannot hit, bunt, walk, catch, or throw.
No thank you to Elvis Andrus in FA. Players built around speed getting big contracts have been worth it never. Everything else is a little premature
Aside from all the 'what ifs', if this team struggles to score runs in 2013, then Mattingly should be on the Silver Streak the fuck out of LA the day we are eliminated. And Ned should be right behind him, carrying his luggage back to Indiana.
