DODGERS 2021 MINOR LEAGUE/PROSPECTS THREAD

Try not to overreact if the team gets some "meh" reports as the Dodgers were supposedly somewhat secret about their Alt Site. As always, I will update the top of this post whenever new info is added.

The Dodgers graduated a multitude of their top prospects in 2020. The list includes Baseball America's #1 Gavin Lux, #2 Dustin May, #3 Brusdar Graterol and #5 Tony Gonsolin organizational prospects. That is a massive hit to team that had been fading in to the back of the top 10 in recent years and this plethora of graduations mixed with no MiLB season means that nobody really climbed the charts into notoriety for a franchise that is known for retooling every year. There were a number of prospects that were raising eyebrows in the spring, so we could see big changes to these lists by mid-season.

Baseball America Top 30

1. Keibert Ruiz, C
2. Josiah Gray, RHP
3. Michael Busch, 2B
4. Kody Hoese, 3B
5. Bobby Miller, RHP
6. Diego Cartaya, C
7. Edwin Rios, 3B
8. Ryan Pepiot, RHP
9. Miguel Vargas, 3B
10. Andy Pages, OF
11. Zach McKinstry, UTL
12. Jacob Amaya, SS
13. Luis Rodriguez, OF
14. DJ Peters, OF
15. Victor Gonzalez, LHP
16. Mitch White, RHP
17. Alex DeJesus, SS
18. Dennis Santana, RHP
19. Omar Estevez, 2B
20. Clayton Beeter, RHP
21. Devin Mann, 2B/3B
22. Kendall Williams, RHP
23. Edwin Uceta, RHP
24. Michael Grove, RHP
25. Jimmy Lewis, RHP
26. Luke Raley, OF
27. Gerardo Carrillo, RHP
28. Andre Jackson, RHP
29. Robinson Ortiz, LHP
30. Zach Reks, OF

Fangraphs Top 20

1. Gray
2. Ruiz
3. Busch
4. Pages
5. Amaya
6. Pepiot
7. Beeter
8. Miller
9. Hoese
10. Cartaya
11. De Jesus
12. Vargas
13. Jackson
14. McKinstry
15. Grove
16. Carrillo
17. Rodriguez
18. Ortiz
19. Gonzalez
20. Nick Robertson, RHP

Link To FG full Top 47 with scouting reports https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers-2/

Baseball Prospectus System Top 10

1. Gray
2. Ruiz
3. Vargas
4. Busch
5. Cartaya
6. Miller
7. Jackson
8. Hoese
9. Amaya
10. Carrillo

CBS Sports System Top 5

1. Ruiz
2. Gray
3. Cartaya
4. Hoese
5. Beeter

The Athletics Top 20 By Keith Law

1. Gray
2. Busch
3. Cartaya
4. Ruiz
5. Pages
6. Miller
7. Jackson
8. White
9. Pepiot
10. Vargas
11. Williams
12. De Jesus
13. Jake Vogel, OF
14. Grove
15. Lewis
16. Beeter
17. Sheldon Neuse, IF
18. Hoese
19. Amaya
20. Carrillo

Baseball America Top 100
53. Ruiz
68. Gray
87. Busch

MLB Pipeline Top 100
57. Ruiz
58. Gray

Fangraphs Top 133
29. Gray
80. Ruiz
85. Busch
117. Pages
118. Amaya

Baseball Prospectus Top 101
55. Gray
74. Ruiz
77. Vargas
91. Busch

The Athletics Top 100
39. Gray
74. Busch
75. Cartaya
80. Ruiz

MLB Pipeline Positional Rankings
C - 5. Ruiz
2B - 5. Busch
3B - 8. Hoese

Farm System Rankings
9. Baseball America
10. Keith Law
20. Baseball Prospectus

Link to Last Years Thread
http://www.dailysportspages.com/index.php?threads/2020-minor-league-prospects-thread.8988/

 

Here are my names to watch based on reports throughout the year that may be ignored by some services:

RHP Josiah Gray- His fastball adding a couple of ticks was the talk of spring training before the shutdown. Still, the biggest hurdle for Gray going forward was whether he was going to be a FB/SL guy out of the pen, or was either his curve or change going to take a big enough step forward that he could find a spot in the rotation. According to reports, both of his curve and change leapt forward and even his above average slider saw improvement. Gray's fastball is considered an incredibly tough pitch to handle due to it's explosive nature and those couple of ticks up to his average would move him into a solid rotational spot. The big question now will be the results.

C Keibert Ruiz- Of the Dodgers that have been said to be the most positively impacted by the Alt Site, Ruiz is said to be at or near the top of the list. The club turned his mostly upper body, high contact, low pop swing into one that generates more power from his legs finally getting properly utilized. This was evident in Ruiz's first MLB at bat that resulted in a HR. While always being considered more of an offense first catcher, he also saw a jump in his skills behind the dish including improved arm strength. There are still questions about his bat from the right side, so that will be something to watch going forward, but Ruiz could find himself at the top of the catching prospect lists this offseason.

3B Kody Hoese- The team said that he showed the best bat at the alt site, which if reports on Michael Busch are true than this is a huge deal. Hoese also got praise from former top prospect Gavin Lux who said that he was a hitting machine and was routinely peppering the balls off and over the wall to all parts of the park. Hoese was the Dodgers 1st round pick in 2019 and was a late emerging college star. The question marks for him going into the season were that his bat could get a bit long. It will be interesting with all the high velo arms at the alt site, if the club was able to tinker a bit.

2B Michael Busch- As I mentioned above, Busch has been receiving tons of praise and was recently given the honor as the top bat at instructs by Baseball America. While hitting was never much of a question for him, it is also being said that he took a huge leap forward with his play on defense. He notably showed up to camp much leaner and agile, which gave the org hope that he could handle the position better going forward. Both Busch and Hoese play positions of immediate need and could be the necessary bats on the way for a club that has become very pitching dominant the last couple years from atop the farm.

OF Jake Vogel- I saw a number of reports that said they felt Vogel was a steal by the Dodgers in what was an incredibly well played draft. Reports out of the Alt Site backed that up with a feeling that he is a star in the making with a mix of ++ Speed and D in the OF. His bat reportedly held up against much more advanced competition and the piece to watch now with him will be whether he can generate enough power to reach stardom. If it does, it could mean the Dodgers would be set in the OF for about a decade if they were able to retain Bellinger long term.

RHP's Clayton Beeter and Bobby Miller- Sadly there were no real in depth reports about the clubs other drafted prospects from the Alt Site. Miller got positive reviews from instructs, but nothing beyond a "he impressed". Beeter had the most intrigue of the Dodgers prospects coming into the season due to what was looking like an elite trio of pitches before the shutdown. Miller's dominance of the college level also led to rightful excitement by many upon being drafted. Both have monster upside, but major question marks loom.

OF Andy Pages- If reports are true about this guy, Angels fans will be looking at Arte Moreno with disgust for a while longer. Pages was the rumored 3rd piece to the puzzling Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling trade to the Angels that fell apart. Pages is the guy in the system that seems to have the biggest boom or bust potential. I have seen a number of scouts that think he is going to fizzle out and I have seen a number that think he could be a true superstar in the making. It is basically one or the other. The fact that he has been one of the more impressive prospects this year is an awesome sign. I have mentioned in the past that the org felt he was going to struggle in 2020 as he FEASTED on lesser pitching last year and the club was likely going to be aggressive with him this year to push him, which most did not think he would be up for the task. He could be one of the players that greatly benefits from the lost season and was able to take advantage of up close coaching on a daily basis. Pages gets compared a lot to another former Cuban Dodger, Yasiel Puig as Pages is a stout kid with speed, power and a cannon for an arm.

3B/1B Miguel Vargas- The next gen of intriguing prospects consists of Luis Rodriguez, Diego Cartaya, Vogel, Pages and Miguel Vargas. Vargas was coming off of two very positive seasons upon his arrival stateside and 2020 was felt like his chance for a true breakout campaign. The 20 year old had showed he could handle the stick and expectations were he would prove himself in his second time around at the HiA level. The chance never came, but it sounds like he took advantage of the down time as at the Alt site he was considered one of the best performers within the org. His bat to ball skills are felt to be some of the best in the org (which is saying something with some of the contact guys we have) and if he could generate more power, he could be a dangerous stick some day. Besides his power, there are big knocks in regards to his play on D, his future may be at 1B which if this is the case, his power would need to blow up in a monster way.

RHP's Kendall Williams & Jimmy Lewis- Neither of these guys have done a thing of note since joining the org, but they are guys to watch as they are BIG right handed pitchers. After what the org did with Dustin May and his low 90's heater, I am excited to see what they can do with a couple other 6'6" guys that live in the mid 90's already.

RHP Ryan Pepiot- When Pepiot was drafted, I was incredibly intrigued. He's a big, solidly built kid, but his velo was underwhelming. The org could work with that, I thought, but this was the best part, his changeup was felt by many to be the best in the draft, but also one of the better pitches in the entire draft class as a whole. The feeling for me was that the Dodgers development staff would undoubtedly abuse that and find a way to unlock more from his other pitches. Well, from all reports it sounds like he answered the call. Pepiot packs what some people feel is a true 80 change and that is now paired with a fastball that is sitting in the mid 90's compared to his low 90's when drafted. The club has also found some more vertical movement in the pitch which has made the already lethal change up, all the more unhittable. Gavin Lux was asked about the Alt site and when asked who did the players want to face the least? The answer was overwhelmingly Pepiot. If some of you remember from the intercamp games, he was the kid that came in and made everyone look completely foolish. It will be interesting to see if his slider and command took a big enough step forward that we could see him in starting role or if he could be headed to the pen.

RHP Michael Grove- The Dodgers second round pick from 2018 was making all sorts of noise at camp last year before things went silent. Grove saw his fastball up to 97 in his second year back from TJ and his secondary pitches had showed drastic improvement. One Dodgers official had said he would be our top pitching prospect by this time a year ago. It will be interesting to see how he improved at alt camp.

LHP Robinson Ortiz- Considered more of a soft tosser, Ortiz showed up to camp last year firing in the upper 90's. If he could maintain or improve on that velo with his already solid array of secondaries, he could become and intriguing rotation option.

 

Fangraphs came out with their Top 47 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers-2/). The post has been updated and here are some notes from the piece:

• The writer for FG leaned heavy on outside the org information, which as I stated earlier, the Dodgers were said to be more secretive than others. So the rankings may be a bit down this year. He also points out that paired with no MiLB season to reflect, the Dodgers had a massive amount of graduations of top tier talent. The high upside guys are gone in his opinion and the team is much more loaded in the potentially solid minor leaguer category.

• He notes that while star's are not as prevalent as in recent years, both top expected Int'l picks this year SS Wilman Dian and C Jesus Galiz have massive superstar upside.

• He has Gray as a solid mid rotation starter. Said that in the looks he saw, was really impressed at how far his change has come. If those glimpses are true, that would give him 3 plus pitches and plus command which could get him in the rotation sooner than later.

• He says the reports on Busch at 2B are still pretty bad, but his bat continues to impress and if 2B does not work, his bat would play in LF. If he can stick at 2B, he see's him with some star level seasons.

• Pages has massive power and the tools where he could stick in CF. He will be a high K guy, but his power out of CF could make him a potential star at the position.

• They have Amaya REALLY high. The tools have never leapt off the board, but he always seems to impress. His eye and all-around solid defense has him with an everyday SS ceiling, though with little to no power.

• Pepiot is this high up from what he showed in those brief glances at ST and summer camp. If his velo holds, he is a top 100 prospect.

• Both Miller and Beeter are here on pure glimpses from a short college season. The grades for Beeter were elite with 70 grades for his FB and Slider, plus a 60 on his curve. Said he's projecting for the pen since he has had a number of health issues, but he would be an elite reliever. Miller has the better build to stay a starter. He is a touch behind Beeter in where his FB and Slider are grading as well as a bit further away with his change. 2021 will be big years for both.

• They are not overly high on Hoese. Think his bat may not play at 3B and it sounds like the Dodgers are saying the same thing and have begun preparation to move him to middle IF. He is getting old for a prospect that has not seen games above A ball.

• He gave an interesting review of Alex De Jesus and said if he can stick at SS and fills out as expected, he could become a star once the power arrives.

• Nick Robertson got some love as a guy who we could see out of the pen in 2021. The 2019 draft pick has seen a velo spike that has his FB in the upper 90's and is pairing it with a plus curveball.

• It sounds like the big RHP Kendall Williams that was acquired for Strip had his velo down from the previous year. He see's him heading to the pen due to his delivery.

• Looks like RHP Jimmy Lewis finally made an appearance during instructs. Velo is down from when he was drafted(sitting 90-92), but his change has taken a big step forward and he is showing some good feel for his pitches. He has the potential to be a starter, but at the back end, especially if his velo does not return.

• He had OF Jake Vogel at 25 and it sounds like pre-draft, he was not a big fan. FG came away impressed after fall instructs and think his hit tool could now play. Still doesn't see any power on the way, though so that hurts his upside.

• I am looking for breakout stuff here on out and Octavio Becerra seems to be first one in the latter parts of this list. Big lefty that we signed out of Mexico has had a massive growth spurt (gone from 5'9" to 6'3"). Secondary stuff is showing lots of promise, which includes a curve, slider and change. About to turn 20, he could be an interesting watch once he joins the org this season.

• RHP Osavanni Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba and only threw one inning in instructs, but FG loved what they saw. His change is incredibly advanced and he showed good feel for his pitches. Velo also saw a spike into the low 90's and he is someone to keep an eye on in 2021.

• Another one to watch is RHP Hyun-il Choi. FG was not impressed by him in 2019, but rival scouts said he was possibly the best pitcher in the AZL. The Dodgers did not bring him to any events in 2020, so it may be a sign the Dodgers are closer to the FG camp.

 

Jesus Galiz is the one that I'm most interested in.
He's got one of those toolboxes that is superstar or bust. My excitement is wet by our massive Catcher depth. The Dodgers have to trade one, don't they?

 

That was actually in the FG article. They said the Dodgers should use Ruiz this winter to get them another piece for the roster. I don't know if I totally agree with that just yet. The last time scouts really saw him was at the end of another ehh year and that was mentioned in the piece. Yeah he got a taste of MLB, but it was only a few AB's and I don't know if that is enough to re-inflate his stock to anywhere close to what it once was. I think if you're the Dodgers, you trade him only if you came away unimpressed with his Alt site work and someone is maybe holding him in higher regard than your outlook is. If he really did take the steps we are hearing about from folks on the inside, maybe you take the chance of having him show that he has taken that leap before you consider moving him. The other thing to look at is Barnes is under contract for 2 more seasons. Would the Dodgers rather stash Ruiz in AAA for most of this season and then do a 3 catcher roster for like a season and a half? Maybe reintroducing Smith to 2B and 3B in the process? They will need to do something at some point, but at the same time catching is a rough position and the Dodgers are not yet loaded at the top. There is a bit of a gap right now between the catchers being ready. It's literally 3 MLB ready catchers on the roster, then 2 star upside catchers and a third decent spec all in LoA or below. That may be giving our FO some pause before making a move since we are a year removed from trading the guy that some thought would be an emergency stop gap between the Ruiz/Smith duo and Cartaya when they moved Wong for Betts. I loved what Barnes did for us in the playoffs, but I could have a meltdown if something happened to Smith and suddenly I'm watching Austin and his .600 OPS for 4-5 nights a week.

 

BP has their report out today and the top post has been updated. Same thing that has been reiterated over and over. Top end ready talent is down due to graduations galore in 2020.

• They give Gray a mid-rotation grade, but a really good one in their eye. They think he will get a lot of strikeouts and both his secondaries are looking at being above average.

• They think that Ruiz is righting the ship somewhat and should be an above average starting catcher.

• BP was the high guys on Vargas last year and they still are this year. Though he did not get the invite to the Alt Site, they saw nothing to deter them when he showed up at instructs. They thing he will be a starting 3B with an above average bat, that strikes out very little.

• They said people are gushing about Busch from Instructs as we have heard over and over again. BP does not think he is going to cut it defensively, so his overall profile takes a hit. They think his contact/power will grade out at above average or better.

• Hmmmm.... the not so glowy reports are coming in on Cartaya early this year. This was another that said that the defensive skills are lacking for him. His bat plays, but there are questions if he can stick at the position as he is not a "quick twitch" guy.

• They also are not gushy about Miller and think he is more back end starter or reliever. Not fans of mechanics which we have now seen a couple of times, but the fact he didn't pitch a full season as a starter is a big red flag for them. They did say if the Dodgers fix him, he could blossom in a big way.

• They had Jackson this high as he has done a great job of showing improvement year over year. He is still not ready, but has the stuff to sneak into the back of a big league rotation or into the pen. If he drastically improved after a year at the alt site, he could leap up prospect lists.

• Hoese was apparently very underwhelming at 3B during instructs and actually looked more comfortable at SS, but that was not saying much. They think if he can't figure 3B out, that he may be a guy without a position and that is not great as the hit tool is ok, but not great.

• Amaya once again got some love for his strong hit tool, though the lack of pop will hurt his ceiling. They think he could be a starter for a middle tier team, but is more likely destined for a super utility role with us. They also give him very high marks for his plate discipline.

• Carrillo has easy high 90's velo, but the secondary stuff is not up to par. He could stick to the back of a rotation if his stuff gets more consistent, but if not he could be at the back end of the bullpen with his velo.

After going through their report, it is getting very evident that these are going to be mostly based on old info. The org was one of the clubs that locked out scouts so this info is based on a couple weeks of looks during instructs. It will be interesting to watch things unfold in the months ahead.

 

i'm no scout obviously but Josiah Gray looked mature and ready from that little bit i've seen
glad to see him being assessed so high and look forward to seeing more of him soon

 

Yeah, nobody knows what they are talking about at this point. It seems that many are frustrated with the way the Dodgers locked down their Alt Site, so these are all going off of the glimpses at spring training, intrasquad games at Summer Camp and I guess two weeks of instructs where they did not even send everybody. I thought he looked good, the velo was up, but until they see these guys over a stretch, they are going to look at their problems from 2019 and assume that they are following them into 2021. I think 2021 is going to be a shit show in the minor leagues of guys blowing up and others falling off a cliff. These top 10's won't be anywhere close to the ones that will be coming out at midseason. The thing they are saying about Gray is his stuff is not elite and that is fine, cause what he does look like is a REALLY steady number 3.

 

i think having elite stuff is overrated
i've seen plenty of guys w the stuff and no control or no ability to get guys out
Gray looks like he's one of those guys that just gets guys out and isn't easily shaken
could be totally wrong but i'll be really happy if i get to watch him play w the Dodgers and not someone else

 

Brett Tomko had pretty elite " stuff"...I used to cringe when I read he was on the mound.
Never felt we even had a chance...unless it was a 10-8 laugher in our favor, which wasn't too often then.
Just the opposite of when I read that guys like Lowe and Leary were up...they weren't the marquee pitchers, but solid competitors.

 

We have our Baseball America Top 10 this morning! Here is what they had to say!

1. They said that Ruiz did a good job of improving on some of his issues this year. He has added noted power to his swing and has begun driving pitches much more often. He is considerably better from the left side than the right, but overall is rounding into a more complete player. They think he will have double digit pop now, but it will still be on the lower end of those numbers. There have been rumors that his arm strength took a leap forward, but BA did not see that. They said he is a starting catcher for almost every other team in the league.
2. Damn, they gave a glowing report of Gray. Said his fastball is incredibly tough as it has a lot of life to it and now that he has added velo it's even more lethal. He also holds his velocity better than most others. His slider benefitted greatly this year with extra work at the Alt site and they now rate it as an above average pitch that will generate a ton of swing and miss. His change up is going to be the difference maker for him. They say he is a mid rotation starter with what he has now as well has his above average control that he uses to pound the strike zone. His change saw improvement, but not enough for him to take an extra big step forward in their opinion. They said if that pitch comes around, he could be a front of the rotation starter.
3. Another guy that had a great year at the Alt Site was Busch. They've got him as a legit 60 hitter with 60 power and comp him to Max Muncy both offensively and defensively at 2B, but with less strikeouts. He has a hell of an eye, a great ability to foul off pitches that he doesn't like that are close and makes pitchers pay for their mistakes. His defense at 2B is still pretty rough and they think he is below average there even after making some big strides this season. With Lux in the fold, it is interesting to see what they decide to do with him going forward, but it sounds like we could see him this year.
4. Hoese had mixed reviews this year, but they said that he ran out of gas at the end of the year which is when most people had eyes on him. Before instructs, reports were very positive about him and his hitting tool has climbed to a solid 60 mark. They have him as a 50 power guy, but he could see gains when he gets more consistent. The consistency issue is actually something that is impacting him on both sides of the ball. When on, they said he is a standout 3B, but his mechanics get out of whack some times and that causes a severe drop in his output whether it be getting way out over his front foot at the plate or see a noticeable drop in the velocity of his throws across the diamond. That sounds like something that could be corrected by our development staff and if true, lookout for these last two guys when they break into the lineup.
5. Hooooooo boy... they REALLY like Bobby Miller. Two 70 FB's, 60 slider, 55 change and an emerging 50 curve. From the write up, "Miller continued improving his stuff and control at the alternate training site and was a revelation in instructional league." This was after an impressive short college season. His FB's average 95 with one cutting and one tailing, each hitting 98. His slider has darting late movement and his change took a major step forward where he threw it to both lefties and righties. The curve is currently a get me over pitch, but it too is improving. The team is now working on his sequencing and having him leave less pitches in the zone. They fix that and you have yourself a guy that may give Walker Buehler a run for his money.
6. They did not say much about Cartaya as he is still years away and they did not get much of a look at him. Defense improved a decent bit which was needed and his upside is a standout catcher, but he's gonna need some time.
7. You can imagine my surprise when I saw Rios here. He moves up 6 spots from last year and is the clubs second player with a 70 grade on the list with his power. Since his swing can still get long at times, they have his hit tool at a not great 45 as well as his defense. They do think he is now a passable 3B due to his "elite work ethic", but is better suited for 1B. They think with the DH on the way, he is an everyday player at this point capable of putting up huge power numbers. PLAY THE MAN!
8. We have another 70 grade here with Pepiot and his devastating change up. Pepiot showed massive gains at the Alt site and has scouts buzzing about his potential. He still has room for improvement, but he saw a rise in velo that has him 93-95 with ride, a useable slider and curve to pair with the change and now control that has ticked up to at least average. He has the chance to move up the list a bunch, but they want to see if he can show consistency over a full season instead of just the Alt site. He was a major work in progress, but has answered the bell thus far.
9. I mean, this top ten is just oozing with massive upside. Vargas is another young guy that has shown he has the talents to be an MLB impact bat. He has a 60 hit tool and 50 power stroke that are both still evolving and the org thinks still have room to jump forward. They cite elite hand eye coordination for him and he drives liners consistently to the opposite gap. The club is working with him on pulling the ball more and trying to get him to send them over the wall. He has to work on handling inside heat, but looks like a guy that is going to hit. His biggest flaw is his defense that is just super subpar. He is not speedy and a slow twitch player which is causing a lot of issues at 3B. He is a big guy and the hope is that his power develops and he can handle 1B. In the meantime, the org is still trying to find this man a position.
10. Based on everything I have heard, I am ecstatic on so many levels that the Joc-Strip-Pages trade fell apart. The rumored return from the Angels was garbage and Andy Pages is turning into a potential star in our system. Pages makes some of the loudest contact in the system which is a big deal for a guy that has such great hand-eye coordination. The report kind of reflects some things that I have heard in that he can get abused by more experienced pitchers, but he is great at making adjustments which could make his adaption at higher levels easier. He is an advanced hitter for his age and if he continues his trajectory, he is going to be a very good RF'er with a cannon arm.

 

That's music to my ears. Barnes did a 180 last season as far as I'm concerned. At the end of 2019/beginning of 2020, he was beyond pathetic. Then he turned it around and was an OBP machine (THANK YOU Mookie for whatever advice you gave). I don't care not having much power from that position as long as he keeps getting on base like that. Smith had his moments too. I hope they really work him with curves this spring, because it seems that teams figured out that is his kryptonite and outside of a couple huge hits, they were able to mostly neutralize him in the playoffs. If he figures out the curve, the sky's the limit.

So a big prospect at catcher should be able to fetch some good value back in a trade, especially if it's true that Ruiz is a starter for almost every other team. I'm good with rolling with AB and Fresh Prince, especially with Cartaya making his way through the system. Just make sure the return value is equal. I expect teams will try to lowball knowing that the Dodgers are set at catcher.

 

So, there was a lengthy chat yesterday on Baseball America and I will do my best to summarize. There were some great things in it and some not so great. Basically it paints a picture that maybe the other prospect analysts did not get the inside look that BA did. Some things came out that contradict other reports as well, but I will do my best to break it down.

• The best thing to come out of the chat was this... First round pick Bobby Miller impressed A LOT of people. He took some steps forward this year with the club even ahead of what he had done in college there is a belief around baseball that the Dodgers have once again pulled a rabbit out a hat. The low end projections on him from evaluators at current are that he will be a #3 starter with some thinking he is already more. The Dodgers cleaned up his delivery in the short time they had with him and he took to it well, which caused some of the more worrisome items from when he was drafted to go away. This is going to be common in MiLB baseball this year, but they want to see how it translates to the MiLB season. They said if everything carries over, he is likely flying up to the top of the Top 100 chart as a legit ace upside. Hell fucking yes.

• Our system is not as top heavy as it was a year ago... which yeah hard to maintain after graduating and/or trading 5 top 100 prospects! However, it is still one of the deepest farms in baseball. Kyle Glaser said that you're getting into our late 20's and you'll still have players that would be in most other orgs top 10's. We may not have elite guys like in years past, but we have a bevy of REALLY GOOD prospects.

• With the great, comes the not great. When the Top 30 comes out, you are likely going to find that last years top Int'l signing OF Luis Rodriguez has fallen deeply in the rankings after being 1/2 on most Int'l prospect lists. Apparently he looked TERRIBLE down at the Dominican site and they could not get him right AT ALL which has the team thinking he may already be a lost cause. He showed up this season noticeably bulkier which he then tried to use to become a severe pull/HR hitter. It led to horrible mechanics, a lot of swing and miss and a lost season. What made Rodriguez a great prospect was his ability to drive the ball to all fields and the feeling was when he bulked up, the ball would start clearing the wall with MORE regularity while also pulling a few more pitches that he could for HR's. Instead he completely altered his swing and tried to be a pull happy hitter and the advanced pitch recognition disappeared. Some evaluators within the org are said to be telling people that he is now outside the clubs top 30. This would be a horrible turn of events as Rodriguez was the closest thing we had to a star level CF'er anywhere in the system.

• Let's go back to good! Kody Hoese was supposedly the best hitter at the Alt site. There are still questions about him due to the way he played at instructs, but if he turns back into the guy he was at the Alt site, he is the 3B of the future. He is just going to have to work on his consistency and improving his arm strength.

• Busch was impressive at instructs and people think his bat is near MLB ready. He is also considered to have raised their stock more than any other prospect this year. He likely will not see time with the big club this year unless there are a string of injuries to guys like Rios, Muncy, Lux, etc... He still has some work to do on defense, but the bat is there. There were some arguments for both Hoese and Busch to be our top prospects.

• Speaking of Gavin Lux, Glaser said that Lux would still be our #1 prospect if he was eligible, BUT for the first time in a while, the org is said to be worried about him. Everyone was very excited at how great Lux looked when he got to spring training, but he was a mess when he got to Summer Camp late. He started to press really bad while trying to play catch up and his mechanics supposedly went in the wrong direction. There's still hope that it was all COVID related and he will get back to camp in better game shape in 2021, but if his pitch recognition is anything like it was at the Alt site, that would be bad. The overlying opinion is that he will come back right next month and show why he was one of the top prospects in baseball entering 2020.

• Andy Pages is opening a lot of eyes in the org and they were very impressed at the steps he took this season. They think he will hit a ton of homers and play great OF in the corner, but the team does not see him as much of a good average guy. The optimistic views on him are a pretty sub par hit tool, but everything else is so good it will more than make up for it.

• The draft pick that everyone was raving about as the potential steal of the draft was supposedly not all that he was cracked up to be. RHP Clayton Beeter was supposedly very underwhelming at the Alt site. The question about Beeter was whether the short stint we saw of him in college where looked ungodly was the knew him or a burst. Supposedly he showed up to the Alt site all out of whack with no control and a change up that was near unusable. People raved about his 2 elite pitches and 3rd plus pitch, but apparently the "70 grade Slider"... never existed. Beeter's curve is thrown hard and it can sometimes morph into a slider like pitch. The club thinks he has a 70 fastball and 70 curve, but everything else about him right now is awful and he is likely destined for the pen.

• My 2019 draft darling, RHP Jimmy Lewis finally made his first organizational appearance at instructs and was supposedly VERY impressive. His mechanics and polished delivery continued to be smooth after the injury and he did a great job of locating on both sides of the plate. Glaser has him as someone to watch in the years ahead, but there is a lot of intrigue with him both inside and outside of the org with the belief he could rise to top 5 prospect status with us.

• Along with Busch, SS Leonel Valera, RHP Nick Robertson and OF James Outman were 3 other Dodgers that rose their stock a ton this season.

• Mitch White impressed the club a lot at the Alt Site. For the first time ever he was consistent and some within the org feels that he is back to being a potential big league starter. White has dealt with a multitude of injuries and consistency issues that have caused him all sorts of development problems. For those that have followed him, many thought if he put it all together he could be an ace as he flashed at points during his career a 70 grade fastball, 80 grade cutter, 70/80 slider, 60 Curve and a 50/60 change. The thing was that these pitches were NEVER going at the same time and in some cases they were years apart from flashing. White's mechanics regularly get out of whack and when was rolling, it was right before the injuries kicked in. Many think he will still head to the pen, but man it would be interesting if this dude was on some slow ass deGrom trajectory. They didn't say his stuff was anywhere close to that level, I was just more refreshing everyone's mind of his history.

• There big 2021 breakout candidates to watch are Alex DeJesus, Kendall Williams, Jimmy Lewis, Leonel Valera, Landon Knack, Jerming Rosario, Yeiner Fernandez and Nick Robertson.

• Jake Vogel is gonna be a long term project. The speedy CF'er is having his entire batting stance reworked and it's a mess right now.

• Speaking of Alex DeJesus, he has outgrown 3rd, but they think he is going to be one to watch going forward.

 

Bobby Miller on BA's Breakout Candidate List
woooooo boy

"The shortened college season presented a unique opportunity for teams picking at the back of the first round. Many players who might have played themselves into the middle or top half of the round with a full season didn’t get a chance, providing teams access to a higher caliber of players than are normally available at picks 25-30. Miller was one of those fast risers on his way to pitching himself into the top half of the first round before the season shut down. He showed he could start, made huge strides with his control and showed flashes of being an overpowering force. Those strides continued after the Dodgers snagged him 29th overall. He improved his delivery to be more compact, got more on line to the plate, was able to land his breaking balls where he wanted both in and out of the zone, showed an above-average changeup and averaged 95 mph on his fastball while showing an aggressive, take-no-prisoners mentality on the mound.

If that sounds like a potential front-of-the-rotation starter, that’s because it is. Evaluators overwhelmingly considered Miller a No. 3 starter at worst based on what he showed at instructional league, with most noting that was a conservative projection. If Miller goes out and carries that performance into 2021, it won’t be long before he is not only in the Top 100, but one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The Dodgers have made a killing on draft picks in the back half of the first round in recent years—see: Corey Seager, Walker Buehler and Will Smith—and Miller may be next in line."

 

"The Dodgers have made a killing on draft picks in the back half of the first round in recent years"

Have we become the Spurs of MLB?

 

Sure hope so. That’s some high praise for Miller and with what they’re saying about Gray, the club could have an incredibly stacked rotation for the next decade.

 

The Dodgers got Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray for Puig. Let's all have a giggle at that.

 

Busch got #5 2B from MLB Pipeline with the best power tool at the position. They said scouts were impressed with him enough at instructs to think he will stick at the position now. Gave him a comp we’ve heard elsewhere, with the bat and his eye he’ll put up numbers similar to Muncy, but with a decent bit better average. The reviews I’m hearing on this kid are getting me HYPED.

The sleepers guy to watch was another Dodgers prospect, Zach McKinstry who has better than average tools across the board. It’s pretty roundly believed that he’s the reason that the team is comfortable letting Kikè walk.

 

Baseball America had their podcast today about our system and here are some notes:

• One of the deeper MiLB systems in the game. He said the system is close to 40 deep of guys who look like future MLB'ers that would be in a number of other teams Top 10's and in most other orgs Top 15.

• Immediate top heavy guys aren't there cause they all graduated last year, but they think we are set to be the most dominant team in the league for the next few years and the mix of talent could be historically good.

• Zach McKinstry missed our top 10, but the Dodgers love him and people compare him to Jake Cronenworth of the Padres. He is going to hit for average and power while playing solid defense at multiple positions.

• The reason McKinstry missed the Top 10 is that the guys on the bottom half of it have HUGE upside. Diego Cartaya, Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas could be monsters from what they are hearing. They said Vargas is going to be a big one to watch in the season ahead since he has hit just so damn well.

• Though they did not see it, Kody Hoese was supposedly phenomenal at the Alt Site last year and people inside the org were gushing over him. BA was more critical of him since he looked so mediocre at instructs, but it was admittedly due to him being worn out.

• They were talking about guys high up in the system that the team should willingly move to add depth elsewhere. They mentioned Edwin Rios as he is kinda blocked unless the DH happens, but said Ruiz makes the most sense since we have Smith and Barnes with Cartaya on the way. Keith Law today said the Dodgers have been floating Ruiz in talks for just about every big name player they have discussed. BA said they should NOT move most of their other guys in the top 10. If you are wondering why, it is cause nobody knows what the Dodgers have right now. Just based on inside reports, many of these guys have been amazing. They are holding out going too over the top on some of our players, but they said there are more than a handful guys that have chances to explode up the rankings. Think Miller, Cartaya, Vargas, Pages, Pepiot, Busch and Hoese to name a few.