DODGERS News/Rumors Thread

Discussion in 'Los Angeles DODGERS' started by irish, Apr 1, 2013.

  1. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    That's not the problem...I won't relax if we are going to pay ANY pitcher $30Mper over 7+ years with an opt out clause. Fuck That Shit!

    He'd be on the trade market if that's his demands if I were GM. We can't run a payroll of $250M every year for long....it's just stupid. We could put an AS player at 3B AND 2B for that.
     
  2. bestlakersfan

    bestlakersfan DSP Legend

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    We have $250MM to spend a year just from the TV contract, JUST FROM THE TV CONTRACT!!!!

    Let them figure it out. He will get what both sides believe is fair.
     
  3. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    Theres problems with the stat (the defensive part of it has some problems with it) but you need a larger sample size then wtv it was a couple months ago because of the fluctuations that happen in some of the. It's not a stat to be a "be all, tell all, don't read beyond that" like some people think people throw it as, but it has value. You'll believe in it soon enough, you don't even know how SABR you are my man.
     
  4. Based God

    Based God DSP Legend

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    It was probably similar because Swisher also plays some OF which has a higher positional value than 1B
    He also grades out as a better baserunner
     
  5. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    Understood, and those are good reasons why the stat is bad. It is entirely irrelevant that Swisher can play OF or is a better base runner(it's not like he's an asset on baserunning like Rickey Henderson). The simple fact is you ask any team who they'd rather have at 1B, AGon wins everytime. and like Doyer pointed out, it changes rapidly...now AGon is way above Swisher. WAR is as much opinion as it is stat.
     
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  6. LASports96

    LASports96 DSP Legend

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    Talking about trading Kershaw is embarrassing
     
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  7. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    Yeah you are right on there... I feel dirty....but for fuck's sake...$30M per year? With an opt out clause? 7-10 years, for a player that plays every 5 days? OMG, I'm gonna be ill.
     
  8. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    wel no, it doesn't change rapidly cause of opinion, and theres zero opinion to it. What I meant by the rapid change is that the defensive ratings on it ccan be better with larger sample sizes and/or adding a new position and what not. And being able to play multiple positions DOES matter.. If the question was simply who you want at 1B, of course it's Adrian over Swisher, and WAR would reflect that if Swisher spent his entire time at 1B.

    But for example, if Hanley has an .800 OPS at SS and Adrian has a .800 OPS at 1B, which is better? Hanleys by far because he is playing a premiere position where the average shortstop is far inferior to the average 1B.

    Another example is your man Nick Punto. Dude has been worth almost 2 wins, meanwhile he has a .664 OPS. Why? Cause he is playing above average defense at multiple premiere positions meanwhile not being Dee Gordon at the plate. Thats phenomenal value for a backup, and WAR gives love to that b/c of factors that were before not widely shown.

    I mean I know I probably won't sway you much, but it's something useable and valuable if used correctly :)
     
  9. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    No it is opinion...here's why. They all use different formula's correct? Some put more emphasis on Defense, and others might on base stealing, etc. It's basically a rating system is it not? well the opinion lies in what's important. That's so debatable...like Why does it matter to the Dodgers that AGon only plays 1B instead of OF? we have 6 OFers already.

    That's where opinion is. There's NO opinion to a real stat like BA, OPS, or OBP. It's just a number.
     
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  10. Based God

    Based God DSP Legend

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    Well IIRC this was when Swisher had a 2.4 WAR to Gonzalez's 2.1 (at least something like that)
    The defense aspect can change rapidly from positive to negative within the first month. Puig, for example, was graded negatively one week then positive the other.
    After a month and thereafter, the defensive metrics stay relatively consistent...The problem is that how do you grade defense? BR uses baseball info solutions that uses humans to track every ball and grade a player. Is that the best way? Im sure they'll couple hitfx and fieldfx down the line to get a better definitive answer to whether a player is a + fielder or not.

    Swisher may not be the best baserunner but is he going 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on singles. 1st to home on doubles etc. You see many times Gonzalez is station to station and sometimes gets stopped at 3rd on a single. So he does have an edge there

    It's not that Swisher can play the OF it is he does (20 games this year). So when he is in RF he gets more positional value for his production than he would at 1B.
    And when he DHs his offensive production/negative defensive rating negate each other. So what he loses by DHing he gains by not playing poor defense.

    So whenever the previous debate happened (near the ASB?) these could all be factors why his WAR was similar. Hope this helps
     
  11. doyerfan

    doyerfan MODERATOR Staff Member Moderator

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    oohhh okay, well yeah, I get what you are saying. Adrians value to the DODGERS is different than what it'd be to the average team. And I think thats where your problem within it lays, which is why of course I said you gotta always look at it in its context, but I think its context is still always great. As to the emphasis on defense/base stealing well its not necessarily a rating system but more a formula as to how much each can positively or negatively impact the game in terms of wins above replacement. And the varying calculations of WAR do create problems whch is why it's always important to see the differences and figure out why these differences exist and what it is telling you.

    And yeah, stuff like BA/OPS/OBP are facts for what they are but also leave a lot to be desired beyond and the stuff they exclude, which is why it's important to see beyond a simple line slash.

    WAR is misguided cause it's not ever suppose to be about comparing who are the best "hitters" in baseball but instead tried to be used to try to be able to compare players across different positions and years (giving appropriate heavy weight to those who man the premiere positions).
     
  12. Based God

    Based God DSP Legend

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    Ford, read up on wOBA. Its very simple and you'll begin to understand why simple stats like BA/SLG etc are vague and useless

    and FG and BR are unifying their WAR calculations tbh
     
  13. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    Which going back to the first issue. I'm not paying Kershaw that contract because of his rWar, tWar, or any other WAR, no matter how saber I may be. :laford:
     
  14. Dodgers99

    Dodgers99 DSP Legend

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    You're right, but who? The hard part is getting those players, not re-signing them, because rarely do really good position players get to free agency anymore.
     
  15. IBleedBlue15

    IBleedBlue15 DSP Stud

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    @dylanohernandez: Matt Kemp could start a minor league rehabilitation assignment this week. Said his ankle is pain-free.

    Well that escalated quickly. Great news!
     
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  16. chris

    chris Guest

    Regardless, if you won't pay him 30 a year someone else will. And I don't want that to happen and I'm sure you don't either. We apparently have the money and he wants to stay. So it's not like we should pay him, we kinda have to
     
  17. VRP

    VRP DSP Legend

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    Clayton Kershaw is 25 and approximately halfway to being a hall of famer. Matt Kemp has had one elite season and one good one in 7 years as a Dodger.
     
  18. LAFord

    LAFord DSP Legend

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    Well injuries are a motherfucker. I hope CK doesn't ever get injured.
     
  19. irish

    irish DSP Staff Member Administrator

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    kershaw is a once in a generation player
    would you have traded koufax/drysdale when they demanded and absurd -- at the time -- $100k each?
    we can all agree to disagree on this one
    $30MM/year for kershaw will end up being a bargain
     
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  20. MZA

    MZA MODERATOR Staff Member

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    Let's just remember that this is all speculation for right now.

    But I would give him the money.

    Someone will. Someone will find a way to give it to him. I'd rather it be us.
     
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