MLB 2020-2021 OFF-SEASON NEWS AND RUMORS

The Dodgers will enter the offseason as World Series Champions for the first time since 1988. They are going into the winter as the favorites to win it again thanks to a stable of young top flight pitching and stars under team control. The Dodgers FA's are:

3B Justin Turner
RP Blake Treinen
UTL Enrique Hernandez
LHP Alex Wood
RHP Pedro Baez
OF Joc Pederson
RHP Jimmy Nelson

Top Storylines of the Dodgers offseason:

• Corey Seager, Extend/Playout Contract/Trade?: The World Series MVP and contender for NL MVP is now a year away from Free Agency. Last winter the talk was that the team had explored trade options for Seager as he was coming off another horrific performance in the playoffs after a solid return from multiple major surgeries. Seager will be entering his age 27 campaign with the potential of adding to his resume and earning himself a payday in the $300M range as one of the leagues truly elite players. The Dodgers have Gavin Lux waiting in the wings and is believed to be a future superstar himself, though he has faltered both times he has come up to the MLB level. Lux could also slide to 2B or Seager could move to 3B down the road, that move however would block another potential rising star prospect in 3B Kody Hoese who drew rave reviews from teammates and coaches this past year from the ALT site for his hitting prowess. The Dodgers do not necessarily have to answer this question this year, but could try to take advantage of the Covid environment and see if Seager accepts a discount if there is worry that the suitors will not be there a year from now. The Dodgers have 3 players already making $30M or more next season and while Kersh is only under contract for another year, the likelihood of him becoming a Dodgers lifer increased substantially last night with the team's WS win.

• Uh oh Salary Relief Coming?: The Dodgers enter the offseason looking at already close to $190M in salary locked in for 2021. Mark Walters recently said that COVID hit the org particularly hard and it could be years before they are able to make back what they've lost. Does this mean that we are in store for a massive sell off this offseason? Well... maybe.... The Dodgers could use this winter to cull from the herd and allow for some of their cheap talent to step in and fill gaps without much loss. David Price is a $15M hit and had no part in the teams success this year. With Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin and May already locked up for next year with guys like Mitch White, Josiah Gray and Michael Grove seemingly knocking at the door, the club could look to move on from some of that salary from a player that had no impact on the WS winning club. Other trade options could include AJ Pollock, Joe Kelly and Kenley Jansen. Pollock is coming off a good bounce back season, but was once again a nonfactor for the playoffs, Joe Kelly earned the hearts of Dodger fans everywhere when he threw at that piece of human garbage and Kenley Jansen may have put himself in a bad situation where things could get really ugly if he expects to be the closer going forward. None of the Dodgers trade pieces mentioned would get anything of value back, but they could be paired with more middling prospects that could ease the other teams burden.

• What to about the FA's?: Hernandez and Baez seem to be almost certainly out the door. Hernandez will likely go somewhere he can get more PT and Baez will get paid by someone that is willing to spend money on middle relievers. Wood could come back as insurance for the loss of Ferguson and maybe McGee if the club elects to deny his club option, while he could also serve as a SP option if the club does clear some salary as mentioned above. Nelson could fit that bill as well if both he and the team liked where things were going in his rehab. Treinen is probably gone and I only base that on his usage during the playoffs. It reminded me a lot of Morrow where they used him to an extreme level without much consideration for his future. Treinen was also not exactly great this year. He had some great games, but he had some BAD ones and this includes the playoffs. With his K's continuing a downward trend, the club could look to move on if he expects to be paid like a closer when more often than not during his career his numbers more align as a solid 6th or 7th inning guy. Joc seems like an obvious gone to me as the club already tried to trade him once and while he continues to be masterful in the postseason, the org seems to want to get away from the platoon guys. The Yankees are said to really like the idea of Pederson and if someone plans on giving him a multi-year deal, he'll be gone. Turner has the strongest chance of coming back. After a horrific start to the playoffs, Turner's bat woke up in game 5 of the NLCS and he helped carry the Dodgers to the title. That is the thing, Turner has started to show his age and the PR nightmare that followed the WS fiasco could have cost Dodgers lovable star dearly. The club has a need at 3B, but as mentioned earlier, one of their top prospects happens to be a 3B. Would Turner go year to year or accept another reduced contract to stay with the organization that he grew up loving?

• Free Agency?: This will be quick... do not expect the club to do much of anything this offseason on the FA market. The needs aren't there, the financial wiggle room is not there and honestly this is a pretty weak offseason. MLB is going to remove the universal DH this year, so there is less room to add a major piece.

• Trades?: This is going to be a weird trade season. Since other orgs did not have scouts that were able to watch other orgs to help facilitate trades this year, teams could be incredibly nervous to make some moves. Major deals are less likely to happen and orgs could look towards the FA market to make improvements or vet for vet trades. Like I mentioned earlier, the club does not have many immediate needs and could choose to fill within and then be active at the trade deadline.

Important Dates

• Now through Sunday November 1 is when clubs and players have to decide whether or not to accept/decline/buyout contract for the 2021 season. They may only resign with their own club.

• November 1: Deadline for teams to offer Qualifying Offers to eligible FA's. The QO is $18.9M this year.

• November 2: Free Agency Opens

• November Date TBD: GM Meetings

• November 20: 40-man rosters to be set.

• December 2: Deadline to tender contracts to Arb eligible players

• December 6-10: Winter Meetings to take place. This years event is expected to be cancelled.

• December 10: Rule 5 Draft

• January 15: 2020-2021 Int'l signing period opens. This is a new date compared to years past when it was mid summer

• January 15: Deadline to submit salary figures to arb eligible players.

• February 27: ST Games start

Dodgers Entering Their Last Season of Control

• Kershaw $31M
• Jansen $2oM
• Seager $10-15M
• Kelly $8.5M (22 Club Option for $12M)
• Chris Taylor $7.8M
• Jimmy Nelson $2M Club Option

The Dodgers have a projected $80M allotted for the 2022 season already.

Key Players and Years of Control Left

• Seager 1 Yr
• Bellinger 3 Yrs
• Urias 3 Yrs
• Buehler 4 Yrs
• Barnes 2 Yrs
• Smith 5 Yrs
• May 5 Yrs
• Gonsolin 5 Yrs
• Graterol 5 Yrs
• Beaty 5 Yrs
• Rios 5 Yrs
• Ferguson 4 Yrs

Prospects Eligible for Rule 5 If Not Added (Current Roster is 34)
Players in bold were added to 40-man, rest are eligible for Rule 5

• OF Donovan Casey
• OF Cody Thomas
• 2B Omar Estevez
• OF Jeren Kendall
• OF/1B Zach Reks
• SS/2B Errol Robinson
• SS Leonel Valera
• 1B/3B Justin Yurchak
• RHP Gerardo Carrillo
• RHP Joedan Sheffield
• RHP Brett de Geus
• RHP Andre Jackson
• RHP Marshall Kasowski
• LHP Logan Salow
• RHP Edwin Uceta
• RHP Guillermo Zuniga

 

Whether the DH is adopted will likely affect Turner's possible return to the Dodgers.

 

When will it become official about an NL DH?

We should also get back Price for whatever he has left.

Let’s keep Treinen and Turner because we also need his glove on 3rd. Losing Kike will suck, but the Dodger salaries are so bloated now, we just pay him market.

Joc is more interesting. NY press are saying the Yankees should sign him. If so, he’s gone. But playoff Joc is so useful. I actually would like to keep him.

 

Without a DH, it will be hard to justify bringing Turner back. I also wonder if the catching situation over the final week will come into play, with Smith being questionable behind the plate and Barnes being nails. If they think converting Smith to an infield position is a possibility, that could be the thing that pushes Turner out. I would love to have Turner back on an ultra-team-friendly 1-2 year deal, which is always a possibility with Truner.

But as-is, the Dodgers have a number of in-house 3B possibilities in Rios, Hoese, Seager, Smith, and Muncy.

 

Of the FA's listed, Treinen is obviously the guy I'm most interested in coming back. At the same time, I think it's more likely he leaves. He worked his way into a nice contract, and there's an argument to be made that it's not worth writing a big check for a reliever. I think the Dodgers only sign one person on this list, one of Turner, Wood, or Baez.

 

Top Storylines of the Dodgers offseason:

• Corey Seager, Extend/Playout Contract/Trade?: The World Series MVP and contender for NL MVP is now a year away from Free Agency. Last winter the talk was that the team had explored trade options for Seager as he was coming off another horrific performance in the playoffs after a solid return from multiple major surgeries. Seager will be entering his age 27 campaign with the potential of adding to his resume and earning himself a payday in the $300M range as one of the leagues truly elite players. The Dodgers have Gavin Lux waiting in the wings and is believed to be a future superstar himself, though he has faltered both times he has come up to the MLB level. Lux could also slide to 2B or Seager could move to 3B down the road, that move however would block another potential rising star prospect in 3B Kody Hoese who drew rave reviews from teammates and coaches this past year from the ALT site for his hitting prowess. The Dodgers do not necessarily have to answer this question this year, but could try to take advantage of the Covid environment and see if Seager accepts a discount if there is worry that the suitors will not be there a year from now. The Dodgers have 3 players already making $30M or more next season and while Kersh is only under contract for another year, the likelihood of him becoming a Dodgers lifer increased substantially last night with the team's WS win.

• Uh oh Salary Relief Coming?: The Dodgers enter the offseason looking at already close to $190M in salary locked in for 2021. Mark Walters recently said that COVID hit the org particularly hard and it could be years before they are able to make back what they've lost. Does this mean that we are in store for a massive sell off this offseason? Well... maybe.... The Dodgers could use this winter to cull from the herd and allow for some of their cheap talent to step in and fill gaps without much loss. David Price is a $15M hit and had no part in the teams success this year. With Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin and May already locked up for next year with guys like Mitch White, Josiah Gray and Michael Grove seemingly knocking at the door, the club could look to move on from some of that salary from a player that had no impact on the WS winning club. Other trade options could include AJ Pollock, Joe Kelly and Kenley Jansen. Pollock is coming off a good bounce back season, but was once again a nonfactor for the playoffs, Joe Kelly earned the hearts of Dodger fans everywhere when he threw at that piece of human garbage and Kenley Jansen may have put himself in a bad situation where things could get really ugly if he expects to be the closer going forward. None of the Dodgers trade pieces mentioned would get anything of value back, but they could be paired with more middling prospects that could ease the other teams burden.

• What to about the FA's?: Hernandez and Baez seem to be almost certainly out the door. Hernandez will likely go somewhere he can get more PT and Baez will get paid by someone that is willing to spend money on middle relievers. Wood could come back as insurance for the loss of Ferguson and maybe McGee if the club elects to deny his club option, while he could also serve as a SP option if the club does clear some salary as mentioned above. Nelson could fit that bill as well if both he and the team liked where things were going in his rehab. Treinen is probably gone and I only base that on his usage during the playoffs. It reminded me a lot of Morrow where they used him to an extreme level without much consideration for his future. Treinen was also not exactly great this year. He had some great games, but he had some BAD ones and this includes the playoffs. With his K's continuing a downward trend, the club could look to move on if he expects to be paid like a closer when more often than not during his career his numbers more align as a solid 6th or 7th inning guy. Joc seems like an obvious gone to me as the club already tried to trade him once and while he continues to be masterful in the postseason, the org seems to want to get away from the platoon guys. The Yankees are said to really like the idea of Pederson and if someone plans on giving him a multi-year deal, he'll be gone. Turner has the strongest chance of coming back. After a horrific start to the playoffs, Turner's bat woke up in game 5 of the NLCS and he helped carry the Dodgers to the title. That is the thing, Turner has started to show his age and the PR nightmare that followed the WS fiasco could have cost Dodgers lovable star dearly. The club has a need at 3B, but as mentioned earlier, one of their top prospects happens to be a 3B. Would Turner go year to year or accept another reduced contract to stay with the organization that he grew up loving?

• Free Agency?: This will be quick... do not expect the club to do much of anything this offseason on the FA market. The needs aren't there, the financial wiggle room is not there and honestly this is a pretty weak offseason. MLB is going to remove the universal DH this year, so there is less room to add a major piece.

• Trades?: This is going to be a weird trade season. Since other orgs did not have scouts that were able to watch other orgs to help facilitate trades this year, teams could be incredibly nervous to make some moves. Major deals are less likely to happen and orgs could look towards the FA market to make improvements or vet for vet trades. Like I mentioned earlier, the club does not have many immediate needs and could choose to fill within and then be active at the trade deadline.

 

I am pretty sure Manfred has already said the DH will not be back next year as it is something that is a collective bargaining matter.

 

I think Treinen is probably gone. Someone is going to pay him more than what he is worth to us, imo. He honestly was solid, but not great for us. He had a couple good outings in the playoffs, but he had some stinkers too. I think the clubs failures of signing relievers to multiyear deals could remove a lot of the likelihood of him returning.

 

We have got some news coming in

• Former Dodger Jose Peraza was outrighted by the Red Sox today
• Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos and Robinson Chirinos all had their options declined by the Mets today.
• Adam Eaton, Anibel Sanchez, Eric Thames and former Dodger Howie Kendrick had their options declined by the Nats.
• The D'Backs declined the option of Mike Leake
• Corey Kluber had his option declined and he will be a FA.
• Daniel Murphy has elected free agency after two terrible years in Colorado.
• Former Dodger Dee Gordon had his final year bought out and he has become a FA.

 

MLB doesn't really care about the DH, but they also know it's a bargaining chip so they will want to get something in return.

However, MLB is interested in expanded playoffs, which is also a collective bargaining matter. There's also a chance that COVID will impact the 2021 season as well, although hopefully not nearly to the same degree. We shouldn't plan on a DH in 2021, but it's still a possibility. If I learned anything in 2020, MLB has no problem making big decisions with no warning.

 

I should add that apparently MLB is planning on having the expanded playoffs again next year. So you are right, it will all be a bargaining chip. Expectations are that this is going to be absolutely brutal winter for FA's, so that could be interesting to see how everything else gets handled if the players feel slighted by the orgs actions.

 

I was just thinking that some team that has money put away and was rebuilding could take advantage of this and sign a bunch of decent dudes to 1 year deals, then flip them at the deadline for more spects. Some savy teams could take real advantage of this situation.

 

Next season I think will be similar to this season. The teams on the rise are San Diego, Atlanta and the Rays. The teams already there are the Dodgers and Yankees. Any championship will have to go through a combination of those teams.

And it looks like we will rely heavily on our prospects to cushion the possible loss of Joc, Kike, and JT.

 

I like to think Mookie signed with us because he loves LA and fuck Boston... but I'm sure having the peace-of-mind to not have to deal with a COVID offseason was a major factor.